[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Apr 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential for Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola: Areas of strong
convection, currently impacting the SE Bahamas, are expected to
shift south and east tonight through Sunday. A co-located mid to
upper low supporting the strong convection will drift south this
weekend. Divergence aloft to the right of the upper trough axis
and deep layer moisture will support periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall over Hispaniola through Mon. Looking further ahead, the
mid/upper low will be reinforced mid- week by a more amplified
deep layer trough extending from the northern Bahamas through
western Cuba. As a result, additional moderate to heavy rainfall
will be possible through mid-week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Sierra Leone near 07N13W and extends to 03N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N18W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N to 05N
between 10W and 17W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to
05N between 17W and 27W, and from 01S to 01N west of 46W at the
western end of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico. In the W Gulf,
weak 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed at 21N97W near Tampico,
Mexico. A surface trough extends from the low to 24N94W. Light to
gentle E to SE winds prevail in the eastern Gulf, as indicated by
the latest scatterometer data. Surface observations depict gentle
to moderate SE winds in the western Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft in the W
Gulf and 2-4 ft in the E Gulf.

The latest visible and fire weather data from GOES-16 shows
several weak agricultural fires underway across southern Mexico.
While no smoke is evident over the SW Gulf/Bay of Campeche at this
time, it is possible that smoke may drift over the waters as the
fires continue to burn.

For the forecast, the weak ridging will support gentle to
moderate E to SE winds across the basin through late Sun. A cold
front will move into the northern Gulf Mon, then stall across the
southern Gulf through Tue. Fresh northerly winds and building seas
will follow the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The latest scatterometer pass shows moderate to fresh trades in the
E and Central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trades in the W
Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the
Windward Passage. Seas are 4-7 ft in the E and Central Caribbean,
and 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
located just SE of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will
continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central
Caribbean through Sun morning. Looking ahead, a cold front may
approach the Yucatan Channel by Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Strong convection, driven by a mid/upper level trough, is
currently from the northern coast of Cuba north to 24N over the SE
Bahamas between 73W and 77W. Gusty winds are possible in the
strongest thunderstorms. The strong convection is expected to
shift south and east tonight through Sunday. Scattered showers are
noted north of 24N between 68W and 74W. A surface trough is NE of
the Bahamas from 27N77W to 30N74W. A shear line persists along
20N between 42W and 65W, with strong trades to 28 kt found
poleward of the boundary according to the latest scatterometer
data. Moderate to fresh trades prevail over the W Atlantic, except
NW of the Bahamas where speeds diminish to gentle. Seas are 4-7
ft in the W Atlantic, except for a band of 7-9 ft seas from 16N to
24N between 44W and 71W.

Farther east, a cold front enters the discussion waters at
31N33W, and continues to 29N40W then to 31N50W. The cold front is
anchored to a low pressure SW of the Azores, which is anticipated
to weaken and move south of 31N by tomorrow. The latest forecast
from Meteo-France indicates the possibility of near-gale force
winds south of 31N tomorrow. Moderate N to NE winds and 8-10 ft
seas in N swell are noted north of the cold front. Elsewhere in
open waters, seas are 4-7 ft with moderate to locally fresh
trades.

For the forecast west of 55W, the shear line will drift north and
dissipate through today. Fresh to strong trade winds south of 24N
and E of the Bahamas will diminish slightly Sun as high pressure
southeast of Bermuda shifts east. Meanwhile, a trough will form
along roughly 75W through the southern Bahamas Mon. Low pressure
will form along this trough Mon night east of the central Bahamas,
then shift northward Tue ahead of a cold front moving off the
northeast Florida coast by Mon night. The front will reach from
Bermuda to western Cuba by mid week. Fresh to strong NE winds and
building seas will follow the front.

$$
Mahoney
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