[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Apr 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0940 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Expect periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall over Hispaniola
through mid week. A mid to upper low is expected to move over the
Bahamas by Sun. Divergent flow aloft and deep layer moisture may
result in periods of moderate to heavy rainfall over Hispaniola
into Mon. The mid/upper low will be reinforced through mid week by
a more amplified deep layer trough extending from the northern
Bahamas through western Cuba, allowing the potential for
additional moderate to heavy rainfall to persist into mid week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Guinea near 9.5N13W and extends to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N18W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 18W and 24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging extends from high pressure over the Carolina coast
to eastern Texas. Farther south, a trough has formed off the west
coast of Yucatan, supporting a coastal jet of fresh to strong E
winds off the northern coast of the peninsula, with locally 4 to
6 ft seas. Elsewhere, the pattern is supporting gentle to moderate
E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas over the eastern Gulf, and 3 to 5
ft seas over the western Gulf. Areas of smoke have been detected
across the western Gulf, associated mainly with agricultural fires
over southern Mexico. No other significant convection is evident
at this time.

For the forecast, the pattern will continue support gentle to
moderate E to SE winds across the basin through late Sun. A cold
front will move into the northern Gulf Mon, then stall across the
southern Gulf through Tue. Fresh northerly winds and building seas
will follow the front. Meanwhile areas of smoke inundate much of
the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An earlier scatterometer pass observed fresh to strong trade
winds persisting off the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela, due to the pressure gradient between high pressure over
the central Atlantic and lower pressure over northern South
America. Seas are up to 10 ft south of 15N off Colombia. Fresh
trade winds cover the remainder of the eastern and central
Caribbean, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate trade winds are
elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean with 3 to 5 ft seas.
Meanwhile, a middle to upper level trough is supporting scattered
showers across the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
located just SE of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will
continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central
Caribbean through Sat night. Looking ahead, a cold front may
approach the Yucatan Channel by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A short-wave, mid to upper level trough is digging into the area
north of the northern Bahamas. This is supporting scattered
showers and thunderstorms across much of the central and southern
Bahamas, as well as a surface trough along 74W, north of 22N. Weak
ridging extends from 1025 mb high pressure near 32N59W westward
along 30N toward 70W. A earlier scatterometer pass indicated fresh
to strong E winds over the southern Bahamas as well as over the
approaches to the Windward Passage. Fresh E winds are are noted
elsewhere south of 22N west of 45W, with 7 to 9 ft seas in E
swell. This is along a weakening shearline extending from from
22N42W to 19N60W to 20N65W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to E
winds and 5 to 7 ft persist over open waters.

Farther east, a cold front reaches from 31N35W to 30N40W to
31N48W. A recent ship observation confirmed fresh to strong N
winds north of this front. Seas to 8 ft are likely following
behind this front as well, part of a larger area of NW swell in
excess of 8 ft over the waters north of 24N and east of 35W.
Elsewhere south of 24N, moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7
ft seas are noted.

For the forecast for the area west of 55W, the shearline along
roughly 20N will drift north and dissipate through today. Fresh to
strong trade winds south of 22N will diminish slightly Sun as
high pressure southeast of Bermuda shifts east. Meanwhile, a
trough will form along roughly 75W through the southern Bahamas
Mon. Low pressure will form along this trough Mon night east of
the central Bahamas, then shift northward Tue ahead of a cold
front moving off the northeast Florida coast by Mon night. The
front will reach from Bermuda to western Cuba by mid week. Fresh
to strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front.

$$
Christensen
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