[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160812
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Apr 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Sierra Leone near 10N14W and extends to 04N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N18W to 03N30W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the ITCZ
between 17W and 24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The stationary front that extended over the NE Gulf has lifted
north of the area. Surface high pressure centered E of Bermuda
continues to extend a ridge across great portions of Florida and
into the northern Gulf of Mexico. This is supporting light to
gentle variable winds in the NE basin noted in recent buoy
observations and recent scatterometer data. Recent scatterometer
data also found gentle to moderate return flow over the rest of
the basin, except for fresh winds off the northern Yucatan
peninsula. Seas are in the 2 to 4 ft over most of the basin,
reaching up to 5 ft in the western Gulf. Otherwise, satellite
imagery continues to reveal a large area of light to moderate
density smoke covering mainly the western half of the Gulf to
the Bay of Campeche, and portions of the Central Gulf. This
smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico could reduce visibility,
mainly in the W Gulf.

For the forecast, a cold front will move into the northern Gulf
Mon, then stall from the southeast Gulf to the South Texas coast
through Tue. Fresh northerly winds and building seas will follow
the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer pass observed fresh to strong trade winds
persisting off the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela, due to the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over northern South
America. Seas are up to 10 ft south of 15N in the SW Caribbean.
Fresh trade winds cover the remainder of the eastern and central
Caribbean, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Fresh E winds are also
noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate trade winds are
elsewhere E of 80W with abating seas of 3 to 5 ft. Otherwise, a
middle to upper level trough is supporting scattered showers
across the Greater Antilles, including E Cuba, Hispaniola, and
portions of Puerto Rico.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support
fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through
Sat night then shift E of 75W on Sun. Looking ahead, a cold
front may approach the Yucatan Channel by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Diffluence to the east of a middle to upper level trough is
generating heavy showers and thunderstorms across the offshore
waters south of 28N and west of 73W. A recent scatterometer pass
noted fresh to locally strong E winds in the areas of
convection. Moderate to fresh E winds are also noted north of
the Caribbean Islands to 26N and west of 55W. North of 26N,
gentle to moderate E winds are observed. Seas are 4 to 6 ft west
of 55W with an area of 6 to 8 ft seas north of the Lesser
Antilles.

In the central Atlantic, a shear line extends from 28N36W to
20N50W to 21N63W. Fresh to strong winds are in the vicinity of
the shear line from 19N to 23N between 45W and 65W. Elsewhere, a
1026 mb high pressure centered E of Bermuda supports fresh to
locally strong E winds S of 25N and west of 35W. Moderate NE
winds are noted between 18W and 35W. Scatterometer data noted
strong NE winds surrounding the Canary Islands. 6 to 9 ft seas
cover most of the Atlantic waters east of 55W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the shearline will remain nearly
stationary along 20N through tonight then begin to drift N and
dissipate Sat. A band of fresh to strong NE to E winds, with
seas to 9 ft will persist south of 24N through the upcoming
weekend as a high pressure center remains in the vicinity of
Bermuda. A stationary front off northeast Florida will dissipate
through early Sat. An associated
upper level trough across the NW waters will move E-SE through
the weekend and support very active weather across the Bahamas
ahead of it. A sharp trough is expected to develop from the
Windward Passage northward across the SE Bahamas along 74W early
Mon. Low pressure is expected to develop along the trough near
28N73W early Tue, shift N-NE and exit the region Tue night.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net