[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Apr 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Sierra-Leone near 07N12W and extends to 04N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N17W to 03N34W to 01S44W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 07N east of 16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from southern Alabama to Cedar Key,
Florida supporting some showers in the Pensacola coastal waters.
Surface high pressure centered SE of Bermuda continue to extend a
ridge SW across great portions of Florida and into the eastern
half of the Gulf of Mexico. This is supporting light to gentle
variable winds in the NE basin and gentle to moderate return flow
elsewhere, except for fresh winds off the northern Yucatan
peninsula. Seas are in the 1 to 3 ft basin-wide. Otherwise,
satellite imagery continue to reveal a large area of light to
moderate density smoke covering mainly the western half of the
Gulf to the Bay of Campeche, and portions of the Central Gulf.
This smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico could reduce
visibility, mainly in the W Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will lift
north and inland tonight. Moderate to locally fresh SE return flow
will dominate most of the basin tonight through Sun. A cold front
will move into the NW Gulf Mon and stall over the central Gulf
Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trade winds persist off the coast of Colombia and
in the Gulf of Venezuela, between high pressure over the central
Atlantic and lower pressure over northern South America. Fresh to
locally moderate trade winds are elsewhere E of 80W with 5-6 ft
seas. Fresh E winds are also in the Gulf of Honduras with seas to
4 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere in the NW
Caribbean with 1-3 ft seas. Otherwise, a middle to upper level
trough is supporting scattered showers across the Greater
Antilles, including E Cuba, Hispaniola and portions of Puerto
Rico.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
located just SE of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will
continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central
Caribbean through Sat night then shift E of 73W on Sun. Fresh east
to southeast winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras
this evening through tonight. A N to S aligned trough is forecast
to develop along 74W-75W from the N coast of Colombia across the
SE Bahamas early Mon through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough supports a stationary front from
31N78W to Jacksonville, Florida and a pre-frontal trough that
extends from the Bahamas to southern Florida. Diffluence to the
east of the trough aloft is generating heavy showers and tstms
across the offshore waters W of 70W where winds are gentle to
moderate N of 25N. Surface high pressure centered SE of Bermuda,
supports fresh to locally strong E winds S of 25N between 55W and
75W with seas of 8 ft. In the central Atlantic, a shear line
extends from 26N36W to 20N50W to 20N62W. Fresh to strong winds are
in the vicinity of the shear line from 19N to 24N between 37W and
55W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a shearline will remain nearly
stationary along 20N through tonight then begin to drift N on Sat.
A band of fresh to strong NE to E winds, with seas to 9 ft will
persist south of 24N through the upcoming weekend as a high
pressure center remains in the vicinity of Bermuda. A weak cold
front off the southeastern U.S. coast will become stationary off
northeast Florida tonight. An associated upper level trough across
the NW waters will move E-SE through the weekend and support very
active weather across the Bahamas ahead of it. A sharp trough is
expected to develop from the Windward Passage northward across the
SE Bahamas along 74W early Mon. Low pressure is expected to
develop along the trough near 28N73W early Tue, and shift N-NE and
exit the region Tue night.

$$
Ramos
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