[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Apr 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient
between a 1023 mb high pressure located near the Madeira Islands
and a 1003 mb low pressure over northern Algeria supports gale
force winds near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone of
Agadir. Gales are forecast to persist until 15/0000 UTC,
according to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-
France. The wave heights are peaking around 12 ft in association
with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues to 03N21W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N21W to 00N35W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-07N E of 13W.
Similar convection is found from 01S-04N between 24W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N87W SW to
27N91W to 26N95W where it transitions to a stationary front to the
southern tip of Texas. Middle-level diffluence continue to support
scattered showers ahead of the front E of 88W. Thunderstorms
associated with a former squall line have gradually decayed. In
terms of winds, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are over the far
NW Gulf with seas to 7 ft while winds of similar speed are off the
Yucatan peninsula, except for locally strong winds and seas to 5
ft. Light to gentle variable winds with seas to 3 ft are
elsewhere. Otherwise, patchy areas of haze are possible over
portions of the southwestern and west-central Gulf with some
reduction to visibilities, due to ongoing seasonal agricultural
fires in portions of Central America and Mexico.

For the forecast, the cold front will shift slightly southward
this evening, then stall and weaken tonight, then will lift
northward as a warm front on Fri. Moderate to locally fresh SE
return flow will dominate most of the basin late Fri through Sun.
A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon and extend across the
N half of the Gulf Tue morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Except for the greater Antilles, most of the basin is relatively
quiet in terms of precipitation. Strong high pressure centered SE
of Bermuda continue to tighten the pressure gradient in the
Caribbean, thus resulting in strong winds in the Gulf of Venezuela
and offshore NW Colombia and fresh trade winds elsewhere in the
central and eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds also prevails
in the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly moderate E winds are elsewhere
west of 80W. Seas are 7-9 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 5-7
ft elsewhere in the eastern half of the Caribbean and 3-5 ft in
the NW Caribbean.

Looking ahead, a robust mid-level trough is likely to form this
weekend over the southeastern Bahamas and Windward Passage area.
Periods of enhanced rainfall and strong thunderstorms are likely
over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Turks and
Caicos Islands from this weekend through much of next week.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
located just SE of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will
continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central
Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh east to southeast winds will
pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Morocco. Please
read the Special Features section for more details.

A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 29N62W. Broad surface
ridging extends SW from the high pressure across Florida and into
the E Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds
prevail north of 25N and west of 55W, where seas are 5-7 ft.
Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are N of 27N and E of 70W.
South of 25N and W of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds are noted
with seas of 7 to 9 ft.

Over the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N40W to
29N55W. A shear line is ahead of this front extending from the
tail of a stationary front from 24N43W to 20N55W to 20N66W. Fresh
to strong NE winds are within 90 nmi ahead of the shear line to
55W. Otheriwse, mainly fresh NE to E winds are in the deep tropics
W of 38W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a shearline will remain nearly
stationary along 20N through Fri night. A band of fresh to strong
NE to E winds, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range will persist
across the waters S of 23N through the upcoming weekend as a high
pressure center remains in the vicinity of Bermuda. A weak cold
front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Fri morning and
become stationary there Fri night. A sharp trough is expected to
develop from the Windward Passage northward across the SE Bahamas
along 75W Mon before low pres develops along the trough near
29N74W Mon night and shifts NNE and exits the region Tue.

For the forecast east of 55W, low pressure is likely to increase
winds and seas Sun through early next week, north of 25N and east
of 40W.

$$
Ramos
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