[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141647
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Apr 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient
between a 1024 mb high pressure located near the Madeira Islands
and a 1005 mb low pressure over northern Algeria supports gale
force winds near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone of
Agadir. A recent scatterometer pass from 14/1000 UTC confirmed the
presence of N winds up to 35 kt near 31N 10.5W, off the coast of
Morocco. Gales are forecast to persist until 15/0000 UTC,
according to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-
France. The wave heights are peaking around 12 ft in association
with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 03N21W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N21W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-
06N between 06W-14W. Similar convection is found from 00N-03N
between 29W-39W. Scattered showers are seen from 00N-04N between
44W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from Pascagoula, MS
to Boothville, LA to 27N93W to North Padre Island, Texas. Enhanced
upper-level diffluence over the north-central Gulf of Mexico is
enhancing strong thunderstorms along a pre-frontal squall line,
oriented from 28N87W to 27N90W as of 14/1500 UTC. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere north of 26N and east of 91W.
Strong NE winds are behind the front in the Gulf of Mexico. Recent
data from NOAA buoy 42019 near 27.9N 95.3W indicates 23 kt winds
and wave heights of 9.5 ft as of 14/1500 UTC. Seas of 6 to 10 ft
are likely occurring over the NW Gulf behind the front. A surface
trough over the southwest Gulf extends from 25N84W to 21N96W to
18N95.5W. To the east of the trough, moderate SE winds prevail
over the south-central and southeastern Gulf. To the west of the
trough, gentle NE to E winds prevail over the far SW Gulf. Seas
are averaging 4 to 6 ft over the remainder of the basin, to the
south and east of the cold front. Patchy areas of haze are
possible over portions of the southwestern and west-central Gulf
with some reduction to visibilities, due to ongoing seasonal
agricultural fires in portions of Central America and Mexico.

For the forecast, the cold front over the NW Gulf will shift
slightly southward today, then stall and weaken tonight. The
western part of the front will lift back north as a warm front on
Fri, while its remainder remains stationary. The strong NE winds
NW of the front this morning will diminish to fresh this
afternoon. Moderate to locally fresh SE return flow will then
dominate most of the basin late Fri through Sat, then become E to
SE Sun and Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The earlier Gale Warning offshore Colombia has expired. Most of
the basin is relatively quiet in terms of precipitation. However,
isolated showers are noted near the Windward Passage, Jamaica and
eastern Cuba. Isolated showers are also possible in the far SW
Caribbean off Panama and Costa Rica. The latest ASCAT data from
14/1415 UTC shows strong NE to E winds in the south-central
Caribbean, locally near-gale off the coast of Colombia. Strong
winds are also likely in the Gulf of Venezuela. Mainly fresh
trades prevail elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean,
as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly moderate E winds are
elsewhere west of 80W. Seas are likely 8-11 ft in the south-
central Caribbean, 6-7 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 3-6 ft in
the NW Caribbean.

Looking ahead, a robust mid-level trough is likely to form this
weekend over the southeastern Bahamas and Windward Passage area.
Periods of enhanced rainfall and strong thunderstorms are likely
over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Turks and
Caicos Islands from this weekend through much of next week.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
located just SE of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will
continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central
Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh east to southeast winds will
pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Fri
night. N-NE swell will continue to dominate seas E of 65W today. A
N to S aligned trough is forecast to develop along 74W and extend
across the far SE Bahamas Mon through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Morocco. Please
read the Special Features section for more details.

A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 30N61W. Broad surface
ridging extends W from the high pressure to northern Florida.
Mainly moderate southerly winds prevail north of 25N and west of
70W, where seas are 4-6 ft. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are
farther east, closer to the high pressure center. Farther south,
recent ASCAT data show fresh trade winds. Seas are 8-10 ft east of
the southeast Bahamas and north of Puerto Rico, within the fresh
trade wind area. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted
over portions of the central and southeast Bahamas.

A stationary front extends from 31N31W to 25N43W. A shear line
continues from 25N43W to 21N53W to 20N67W. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms are near the shear line between 56W-63W. Isolated
showers are possible elsewhere near the shear line and stationary
front. ASCAT shows fresh to strong NE to E trade winds within 120
nm N of the shear line between 57W-64W. Winds are gentle on both
sides of the stationary front. A cold front enters the area near
31N45W and extends to 30N54W to 31N57W. Isolated showers are
possible within 60 nm of the front. ASCAT shows fresh winds on
both sides of the front. A large extratropical storm centered well
north of the area near 47N37W is sending NW swell southward, into
the area. As a result, seas of 8-11 ft are occurring north of 29N
between 30W-55W. Seas of 8-9 ft also extend along the length of
the stationary front and shear line. Farther south, fresh to
locally strong trades and 8-10 ft seas are noted from 04N-12N
between 40W-60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the shearline will remain nearly
stationary along 20N through Fri night. A band of fresh to strong
NE to E winds, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range will persist
across the waters S of 23N through the upcoming weekend as a high
pressure center remains in the vicinity of Bermuda. A weak cold
front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Fri morning and
become stationary there Fri night. A sharp trough is expected to
develop from the Windward Passage northward along 73W Mon before
low pres develops along the trough near 28N70W Mon night and
shifts NNE.

For the forecast east of 55W, low pressure is likely to increase
winds and seas Sun through early next week, north of 25N and east
of 40W.

$$
Hagen
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