[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Apr 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient is present in
the south-central Caribbean Sea due to high pressure north of the
basin and low pressure over northern Colombia. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass captured strong to gale-force winds
in the offshore waters of northern Colombia. Pulsing gale-force
winds in this region will continue into early Wed morning, and
again Wed night into early Thu morning. Seas will peak near 12 ft
in the early morning hours Wed and Thu as the gale-force winds
diminish to fresh to strong for the remainder of the morning and
afternoon hours. Conditions will improve later this weekend.

Please read the High Seas forecast at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml or the Offshore Forecast at
the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 01N24W. The ITCZ extends from
01N24W to 04S39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is present S of 08N and E of 17W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high pressure system near Bermuda extends to the western
Gulf of Mexico. A storm system over the central United States and
divergence aloft is generating a line of showers and
thunderstorms over the NW Gulf, primarily N of 24N and W of 90W.
The strongest storms can produce gusty winds to near gale-force,
frequent lightning and rough seas. Tranquil weather conditions
prevail in the rest of the basin. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass and surface observations indicate that fresh to strong SE
winds are prevalent in the gulf, except for moderate or weaker
winds in the NE Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Seas of 5-8 ft are found
across most of the Gulf, except for 2-5 ft in the NE Gulf and Bay
of Campeche.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across
the Gulf waters and a lower pressures over NE Mexico will continue
to support fresh to strong southerly winds over the western half
of the Gulf into Wed night. Fresh to locally strong SE winds are
likely in the Florida Straits through tonight. A weak cold front
will move off the Texas coast Wed night, and extend over the
northern Gulf on Thu, then stall. The western part of the front
will lift back north as a warm front on Fri, while its remainder
remains stationary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the Caribbean Sea near the northern coast of Colombia.

Fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail across the Caribbean
Sea. The tight pressure gradient mentioned in the Special Features
section also results in fresh to strong trades over most of the
basin. Outside of the south-central Caribbean, strong winds are
found in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba as a scatterometer
satellite pass recently captured. Seas are 4-8 ft outside of the
south-central Caribbean, except for 1-4 ft in the waters between
the Cayman Islands and Cuba.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N
of the Caribbean Sea and the Colombian low will continue to
support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia through Sat night. Minimal gale force
winds will pulse just offshore Colombia at night through Wed
night. Pulsing fresh to strong northeast winds are also expected
in the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage into late night. Fresh to
locally strong east to southeast winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Honduras at night into Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N40W and
continues southwestward to 21N55W, where it transitions into a
shear line that continues westward to near the Turks and Caicos
Islands. No deep convection is associated with these features. A
high pressure system of 1026 mb is located near Bermuda and
dominates most of the western Atlantic. Satellite-derived wind
data depict fresh to strong NE-E winds within 120 nm north of the
cold front and shear line, with the strongest winds occurring S of
23N, including at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Similar
winds are also found in the Bahamas and offshore Cuba, especially
S of 26N. Seas of 8-14 ft are found north of the frontal boundary
and shear line and E of 64W and seas greater than 12 ft are
occurring N of 28N and between 45W and 53W. Elsewhere behind the
front, moderate or weaker winds and 4-8 ft seas prevail.

The rest of the basin is under the control of a 1022 mb high
pressure system just south of the Azores. Fresh trades are noted S
of 13N and W of 33W with northerly swell producing seas of 6-8 ft.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are present N of 17N and E of
22W, as depicted by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. The
strongest winds are occurring near the coast of southern Western
Sahara. Seas in the area described are 6-10 ft. Elsewhere in the
basin, moderate or weaker winds and 5-8 ft seas are predominant.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N40W to
21N55W where a shearline begins and continues to near 21N70W. The
cold front portion will continue moving SE into Wed, before
stalling along 20N Wed night, and dissipating by Thu night. Seas
of 8 to 12 ft in NW swell behind the front will continue to
propagate across the NE forecast waters into Wed. Another cold
front will clip the NE waters Thu into Thu night. A belt of fresh
to strong NE to E winds with seas of 8 to 9 ft will persist across
the region S of 23N through the weekend. A weak cold front will
move off the southeastern U.S. coast Fri and become stationary Fri
night.

$$
Delgado
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