[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Apr 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale-Force Winds in the Caribbean Sea...

Gale-force winds are being forecast for the coastal waters of
Colombia, during the late night and early morning hours, for
tonight and Tuesday night. The gale-force winds will be pulsing,
and then diminishing to less than gale-force during the daylight
hours.

Please, read the High Seas forecast at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, or the Offshore Forecast at
the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W, through the Equator along 20W, to 02S24W.
The ITCZ continues from 02S24W, to 03S30W and 03S39W. Three
small-scale surface troughs are in the area that is from 04N to
the ITCZ between 27W and 35W. Precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate, and locally strong, from 06N southward from
50W eastward. Other rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high pressure center is off the coast of Georgia near
31N79W. A surface ridge extends from the 1024 mb high pressure
center, southwestward, into the southwestern corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Strong SE winds are from 25N southward between 89W and
93W. Fresh southerly winds are elsewhere. The wave heights range
from 1 foot to 3 feet in the coastal waters of the Florida west
coast and in the NE Gulf; and from 3 feet to 5 feet in the SE
Gulf. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet from 90W
westward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is in the NW corner of the area, from 27N northward from
90w westward.

The pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf waters and
a low pressure over NE Mexico will continue to support fresh to
strong southerly winds over the western half of the Gulf through
Wed. These winds will expand eastward on Tue as the high pressure
currently located just E of northern Florida continues to shift
eastward. A weak cold front will move off the Texas coast on Wed
night, then become stationary over the northern Gulf on Thu. The
western part of the front will lift back north as a warm front on
Fri, while its remainder remains stationary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
the GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, for the Caribbean Sea.

The southeasternmost part of a stationary front reaches the
Windward Passage. A dissipating stationary front continues from
the Windward Passage to the eastern sections of Honduras.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 210 nm to the south
of the dissipating stationary front, from 14N northward.
Rainshowers are possible also to the northwest of the stationary
front. Other rainshowers are possible, in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea, in the trade wind flow.

The wave heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 12N southward
between the coast of Colombia and 80W. The wave heights range from
3 feet to 5 feet from 70W eastward. The wave heights range from 4
feet to 7 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Strong NE
winds are within 210 nm of the coast of Colombia between 74W and
79W. Fresh NE to E winds cover the Caribbean Sea from 70W
eastward. Fresh NE winds are in the remainder of the area, from
70W westward.

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the Caribbean
Sea and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades over
the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Gales will pulse just
offshore Colombia tonight and again Tue night. Pulsing fresh to
strong northeast winds are expected at night and into the mornings
in the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage through Tue. Fresh to
locally strong east to southeast winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Honduras at night through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N55W to 24N67W. A stationary front
continues from 24N67W to the Windward Passage. A dissipating
stationary front continues from the Windward Passage to the
eastern sections of Honduras. The wave heights range from 7 feet
to 9 feet from the cold front northward. The wave heights range
from 5 feet to 7 feet from 09N to the cold front between 50W and
60W. The wave heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 09N
southward between 40W and 60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
within 120 nm on either side of the frontal boundary. Fresh to
strong NW winds, and faster wind speeds, are from 30N northward
between the cold front and 66W. NW moderate to fresh winds are
elsewhere to the northwest of the cold front between 60W and 70W.
Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds cover the Atlantic
Ocean from 70W westward. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are
from 24N southward between 60W and 70W.

A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 31N79W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the frontal
boundary northwestward. The wave heights range from 2 feet to 4
feet from the rest of the frontal boundary northward from 70W
westward.

A 1018 mb low pressure center is near 27N46W. A cold front extends
from the low pressure center, to 22N50W and to 22N56W. A warm
front extends from the 1018 mb low pressure center, to 25N41W.
A second 1018 mb low pressure center is near 24N34W. A cold front
extends from the second 1018 mb low pressure center to 25N41W. A
warm front extends from the second 1018 mb low pressure center to
21N30W. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 31N36W.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N northward from
60W eastward. The wave heights range from 11 feet to 15 feet from
24N northward between 20W and 40W. The wave heights range from 7
feet to 11 feet from 17N to 24N between 20W and 40W. The wave
heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to moderate NE winds are from 30W eastward.
Fresh NE winds are from 20N southward between 20W and 50W.

A surface trough is along 31N12W 26N15W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the
trough.

A cold front from 31N54W to the Turks and Caicos gradually will
move eastward early this week and become oriented along 21N, E of
60W, by mid-week. Fresh to strong NW winds will continue N of 28N
through tonight, while fresh to strong NE winds will prevail
within 200 km N of the front into late week. Seas of 12-15 ft will
continue to propagate across the NE forecast waters in the wake
of the front through Tue night. High pressure will follow the
front, and will remain in control of the weather pattern across
the region through Fri. A weak cold front will move off the
southeastern U.S. coast Fri and become stationary Fri night.

$$
mt/sk
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