[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071731
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Apr 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

A tight surface pressure gradient is in the southwestern corner
of the Gulf of Mexico, to the west of a cold front. Expect gale-
force NW to N winds, and the wave heights building rapidly to 8
feet, from 19N to 20N between 95W and 97W, including within 60 nm
of Veracruz in Mexico. The cold front passes through the Florida
Big Bend, to the central Gulf of Mexico, to the southwestern
corner of the Gulf of Mexico and the coast of Mexico near 19N96W.
The gale-force wind conditions and the wave heights are forecast
to continue for the next 12 hours or so. The wind speeds will
slow down to less than gale-force by this evening. The maximum
wave heights are forecast to be 9 feet tonight. Please, read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near
04N14W, to the Equator along 20W. The ITCZ continues from the
Equator along 20W, to 01S32W and 01S45W. Precipitation: scattered
to numerous strong is within 280 nm of the center in the SW
quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
elsewhere from 10N southward from 20W eastward. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong also is from 07N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning for the southwestern corner of the Gulf of
Mexico and for the waters offshore Veracruz in Mexico.

A cold front passes through the Florida Big Bend, to the central
Gulf of Mexico, to the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico
and the coast of Mexico near 19N96W. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is from 26N to 27N between 84W and 86W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 60 nm on
either side of the line that runs from 31N77W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to 28.5N81W at the Florida east coast, to 26N87W in the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Surface high pressure is building into the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico, through 30N101W in West Texas, to 26N98W near the
Texas/Mexico border, to 20N97W in Mexico.

Earlier altimeter settings were showing wave heights ranging from
4 feet to 5 feet in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, and
ranging from 2 feet to 3 feet in the Straits of Florida. The sea
heights were ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet in the western half of
the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong cyclonic winds are from 25N
northward from 87W eastward. Moderate wind speeds, or slower, are
in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

Areas of haze, that are being generated by agricultural fires in
Mexico and northern Central America, are reducing the visibility
along and offshore parts of the SW and west central Gulf of
Mexico, to the east of the cold front. It is possible that the
fires may grow, as the front brings strong winds.

A cold front extends from the Big Bend area of Florida to near
Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to near gale N winds prevail west of the
front. Gale-force NW winds have developed offshore Veracruz this
morning and should continue through this evening. The cold front
will continue to move southeast and exit the Gulf of Mexico Fri
morning. High pressure will build in the wake of the front through
the weekend. Strong E to SE return flow should set up in the W
Gulf late Sat through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are in the south central Caribbean Sea, and
within 120 nm of the coast of Honduras between 84W and 87W. Moderate
to fresh winds are in the north central Caribbean Sea. Moderate
wind speeds are elsewhere. The wave heights range from 7 feet to 9
feet in the the south central Caribbean Sea, from 4 feet to 6 feet
elsewhere from 80W eastward, and from 3 feet to 5 feet from 80W
westward.

The Bermuda High north of the area will support fresh to strong
NE to E trades in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia late nights and early mornings for the next several days.
Fresh to strong E to SE trades in the Gulf of Honduras will
continue through tonight before diminishing. A late- season cold
front will reach the Yucatan Channel Fri morning, then move
through the NW Caribbean Sat, before dissipating Sun. High
pressure building in behind the front will force increasing NE to
E winds across the W and central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through the Florida Big Bend, to the central
Gulf of Mexico, to the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico
and the coast of Mexico near 19N96W. Precipitation: Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 60 nm
on either side of the line that runs from 31N77W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to 28.5N81W at the Florida east coast, to 26N87W in the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb 34N15W high pressure
center, to 29N37W 24N61W 24N71W. A cold front passes through
31N44W to 29N49W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean, except for the area that is around the cold front.
The wave heights range: from 8 feet to 9 feet from 26N northward
between 30W and 50W; from 7 feet to 9 feet from 09N to 26N from
30W eastward; from 7 feet to 8 feet from 05N to 13N between 30W
and 60W, and from 15N to 23N between 30W and 40W; from 5 feet to 6
feet elsewhere from 60W eastward; and from 3 feet to 5 feet from
60W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 440 nm of the
coast of Africa from 12N to 25N. Fresh NE winds are from the line
28N18W 25N33W 23N46W 24N71W southward.

Fresh to strong SW winds offshore N Florida will continue today,
ahead of a cold front that will move off the coast of the SE U.S
this evening. The front will reach from near 31N75W to W Cuba Fri
morning, from 31N70W to central Cuba Sat morning, from 31N62W to E
Cuba Sun morning, and from 31N55W to Hispaniola Mon morning.
Strong to near gale W to NW winds will develop in the wake of the
front on Sat and Sun.

$$
MT/CL
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