[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Apr 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning:

A 1000 mb low pressure center is about 600 nm to the NW of the
Canary Islands. A cold front that is connected to the low pressure
center is along 31N23W 26N30W 26N35W 29N36W. A surface trough is
to the southeast and south, along 31N20W 21N30W 19N40W 19N54W.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to the south
and southeast of the surface trough, and elsewhere from the
surface trough northward from 55W eastward. Gale-force winds are
in the METEO-FRANCE forecast, in the IRVING area, until 1200 UTC
today. The wave heights are reaching at least 15 feet from the
cold front northward. The wave heights are in the range from 6
feet to 9 feet from the surface trough northward, in the remainder
of that part of the Atlantic Ocean. Please, read the latest High
Seas Forecast, that is issued by Meteo- France, at the website:
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, curving to 01N18W. The ITCZ continues from
01N18W, to the Equator along 28W, to 02S38W, and to the Equator
along 40W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from
02N between 07W and 10W, and from 03N to 04N between 44W and 45W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 03N
southward between 20W and 27W, and from 03N southward between 32W
and 36W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder
of the area from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front continues from a 1013 mb low pressure center that is
near 29N79W, to Florida, into the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N85W,
27N90W, and 25N97W. A surface trough extends from the 1013 mb low
pressure center, to the coast of Florida near 26N80W, and to
26N84W in the SE Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 25N to 27N between 83W and 87W.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 24N to 29N between 80W and
88W, including in Florida. Mostly moderate wind speeds are in the
Gulf of Mexico. The wave heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in
most of the area, except for the range from 1 foot to 3 feet in
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

A front that had stalled earlier, has begun to move southward as
a cold front this evening. It extends from Tampa, Florida, to
just N of Tampico in Mexico. This front will dissipate by the end
of the weekend. Southerly flow will return through the basin
after the boundary dissipates. The next cold front may move off
the Texas coast during the middle of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure and fairly tranquil weather conditions cover the
area. Moderate to fresh trade winds are in the central Caribbean
Sea, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate or weaker easterly
breezes are elsewhere. The wave heights range from 5 feet to 8
feet in the eastern and central Caribbean, peaking at 8 feet in
the offshore waters of NW Colombia. The wave heights range from 2
feet to 5 feet in the western Caribbean Sea.

High pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to
strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the coast of
Colombia through Sun. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of
Honduras will diminish tonight, but may redevelop Mon night.
Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force winds in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front passes through 31N63W to 29N70W, to a 1013 mb low
pressure center that is near 29N79W. The cold front continues to
Florida, and into the NE Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends
from the 1013 mb low pressure center, to the coast of Florida near
26N80W, and to 26N84W in the SE Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 26N northward
from 70W westward. Remnant clouds from weakening precipitation are
from 26N northward between 60W and 70W. Isolated moderate is in
the coastal waters of Cuba between 76W and 78W.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 29N48W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the north of
the 31N20W 21N30W 19N40W 19N54W surface trough, and to the
southeast of the 31N63W 29N70W cold front. The wave heights range
from 3 feet to 5 feet, from 20N northward from 50W westward. The
wave heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet, in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean that is from 31N20W 19N54W surface trough southward
from 45W eastward. Fresh NE winds are from the ITCZ to 28N
between 30W and 60W.

A cold front from near Bermuda to near Melbourne, Florida, will
slide E through Mon, stall Tue along 27N, then dissipate Wed. Weak
low pressure has formed offshore Florida along this front, and
will move NE along the boundary and out of the region Sun. The
next cold front may move off the SE U.S. late next week.

$$
MT/SK
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