[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Apr 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: 1001 mb low pressure SW of the Azores
near 37N30W and a cold front extending from the low to 29N37W
will move eastward today. Meteo-France expects near gale to gale
force NE winds ahead of the front in the following marine zone:
MADEIRA. Near gale to gale force NW winds are expected behind the
front in the following marine zones: CANARAIS, IRVING, and METEOR.
Gales will begin late tonight, spreading east through early
Sunday, mainly N of 29N between 26W and 31W. The potential for
gales will diminish later Sun, as the system weakens. Seas will
build to 18 ft, in NW swell, in the area of highest winds. Seas 8 ft
and greater are currently found north of a line from 31N26W to
23N36W to 31N45W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by Meteo-France at the website: http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html,
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
04N22W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N22W to 02S33W to the coast
of Brazil at the equator and 49W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection, associated with the monsoon trough, is from 02N
to 08N east of 20W. Earlier sactterometer data indicates possible
gales within the strongest convection.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends from Cedar Key, Florida to 28N89W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is along the warm front, from
27N to 30N between the Florida Gulf Coast and 89W. Strong, gusty
winds and frequent lightning are occurring. An additional area of
scattered moderate convection is along the SE Louisiana coast,
north of 29N between 89W and 91W. A stationary front continues
from 28N89W to 28N95W to the coast of Mexico near 25N97W. South of
the frontal boundaries in the eastern Gulf, moderate to locally
fresh SW winds prevail along the periphery of the subtropical
ridge. South of the frontal boundaries in the western Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche, winds are light. North of the
frontal boundaries, NE winds are gentle to moderate, increasing to fresh
in the northeast Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin, except
1-3 ft in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary extending from central
Florida to northern Mexico will meander over the basin for the
remainder of the weekend before dissipating early next week.
Southerly flow will return through the basin after the boundary
dissipates.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Ridging imparted on the basin by the subtropical high supports
moderate trades, except in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras where trades are fresh to strong. Seas are 4-7 ft across
the Caribbean, peaking at 8 ft in the south-central Caribbean in
the area of fresh to strong winds.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia into Sun. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of
Honduras will diminish today. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail
elsewhere. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with large trade-
wind swell will continue east of the Lesser Antilles through
tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on
an East Atlantic Gale Warning.

A cold front extends from 31N69W to 29N76W. Scattered moderate
convection is north of 28N to the front, between 70W and 74W. A
stationary front then continues from 29N76W to Daytona Beach, FL. A
cold front extends from 1001 mb low pressure SW of the Azores
near 37N30W to 29N37W. Another cold front extends from 31N24W to
21N37W. A dissipating cold front continues from 21N37W to 20N56W.
No significant convection is noted with these features at this
time. 1025 mb high pressure centered near 29N50W sustains gentle
to moderate anticyclonic flow. S of 10N E of 40W, NE winds are
fresh. Outside of the Meteo-France Gale Warning Area, seas are 4-7
ft across the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 65W, a cold front from near 31N70W to
northern Florida will slowly dissipate this weekend. A second cold
front will move across the northern waters Sun through early next
week.

$$
Mahoney
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