[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011021
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Apr 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: South winds of 25 to 35 kt can be expected
early this morning N of 29N between 76W and 80W. These winds are
occurring ahead of a cold front that will move off the coast of
Florida later this morning, ending gales and turnings winds
westerly for this afternoon. Waves heights in the area of gales
are 9 to 12 ft. These seas will diminish this afternoon.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to
the Equator at 30W, then continues W of 35W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along both of these features, between the
equator and 08N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A slow-moving cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to
just N of Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh NE winds are
occurring behind the front across the northern Gulf. To the S of
the front, mainly moderate S winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 7 ft
across the entire Gulf, but decaying. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted along and S of the cold front
off the coast of Florida, generally from 26N to 29N, E of 87W.

Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico may be restricting
visibility in portions of the southern and western Gulf of Mexico.
Mariners who encounter reduced visibility due to smoke are
encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather
Service, by calling 305-229-4425.

The cold front will stall today from near Tampa Bay to
Veracruz, Mexico, then meander over the area this weekend, before
dissipating for the start of next week. Southerly return flow
will dominate early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid and upper level high pressure is preventing convection over
the Caribbean this morning, with surface high pressure centered
north of the region inducing fresh trades winds across the area.
Areas of strong mainly E winds are noted S of Hispaniola, off the
N coast of Colombia, and in and near the Gulf of Honduras. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft across the basin, except 8 to 10 ft offshore
Colombia and in and near the Gulf of Honduras.

Surface high pressure north of the area will continue to sustain
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia through the weekend, but similar winds south of
Dominican Republic and in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish by
Sat. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to
fresh trade winds along with larger trade- wind swell will
continue east of the Lesser Antilles through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning in effect early this morning offshore northeast
Florida. These southerly gales are occurring ahead of a cold front
that is currently inland over Florida. However, numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection in advance of this front is
impacting waters N of 28N and W of 77W.

A cold front extends from 31N35W to 20N56W, where it devolves into
a shear line and continues to 20N74W. Convection previously
associated with this front has diminished. Winds north of this
boundary are mainly moderate to fresh, with lighter winds closer
to a weak high pressure centered just E of Bermuda. To the N of
the shear line and SW of the high pressure, including the Bahamas,
offshore Florida, and waters near the Greater Antilles, moderate
to fresh mainly SE winds prevail. S of the front and shear line,
for areas W of 40W, moderate to fresh trades prevail, with areas
further E having mainly gentle NE flow, with the except of
moderate to fresh winds offshore Morocco.

A surface trough along 49W, from 08N southward is producing
scattered moderate convection between 46W and 52W.

N of the cold front in the central Atlantic, NW well is leading to
seas of 8 to 12 ft. Elsewhere through the basin, seas average 5 to
7 ft, with some 8 ft seas behind observed E of and approaching the
Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh easterly winds south of 23N and
west of 70W will prevail today. Strong southerly winds, with
frequent gusts to gale force will continue off northeastern
Florida early this morning ahead of a cold front that will move
across the waters offshore northeastern Florida today, then across
the northern waters into Sat. The front is forecast to become
stationary across the central waters Sat night. Scattered strong
thunderstorms are likely to precede the front today. Another cold
front may move across the basin early next week.

$$
KONARIK
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