[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Apr 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning: Expect gale-force
southerly winds, from 29N to 31N between 76W and 80W, off the
coast of NE Florida, until later this morning. A cold front is
forecast to enter the western Atlantic Ocean on Friday. The wave
heights will range from 8 feet to 11 feet.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 05N14W and 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from
04N16W, to the Equator along 30W, and to the Equator along 34W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 08N southward from 45W eastward. A surface trough is along
48W/49W from 08N southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 08N southward between 46W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, to 25N90W and
23N95W. The cold front curves from 23N95W, to 20N95W 20N97W, and
then northward to the border of Mexico and Texas near 26N99W.
Fresh NE winds are within 210 nm to the north of the cold front
from 90W westward. Moderate wind speeds or slower are elsewhere.
The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 23N to 30N from
88W eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet, in the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico to the east of the cold front.
Earlier reports showed that the sea heights were ranging from 7
feet to 9 feet to the northwest of the cold front from 90W
westward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is 26N to 29N between the Florida coast and 87W.

It is possible that smoke, that is being produced by agricultural
fires in Mexico, may be reducing the visibilities in parts of the
southern and western Gulf of Mexico. Mariners who encounter
reduced visibilities due to smoke are encouraged to report the
observation to the National Weather Service, by calling
305-229-4425.

A cold front extends from the central Florida Panhandle to near
Tampico, Mexico, with some strong to severe thunderstorms in
advance of the front in the far NE Gulf. Fresh to strong S winds
ahead of the front will continue to diminish overnight. The front
will stall later Fri from near Tampa Bay to north of Veracruz,
Mexico, then lift north and gradually dissipate over the weekend.
Southerly return flow will dominate for the start of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle level to upper level anticyclonic flow covers the western
half of the Caribbean Sea, leading to subsidence and dry
conditions. A middle level to upper level trough covers the
eastern half of the Caribbean Sea, where the conditions also are
relatively dry. Trade wind rainshowers span the Caribbean Sea,
mostly from 85W eastward.

Near gale-force NE winds are within 75 nm of the coast of
Colombia between 74W and 76W. Strong NE winds are from 16N
southward between 73W and 77W. Fresh to strong winds are elsewhere
in the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet
in the central Caribbean Sea, and in the Gulf of Honduras. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere.

High pressure north of the area will continue to sustain fresh to
strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia, south of the Dominican Republic, and in the Gulf of
Honduras, except diminishing south of Hispaniola Fri night.
Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh
trade winds along with larger trade wind swell will continue east
of the Lesser Antilles through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section for more information
about the Gale-Force Wind Warning, for the Atlantic Ocean that is
to the east of northern Florida. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong is to the northwest of the
line that passes through 31N74W to the coast of Florida along 27N.

A cold front passes through 31N37W 28N40W 24N50W 21N60W. A shear
line continues from 21N60W, to the SE Bahamas near 21N74W.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 120 nm to the SE of
the cold front, and within 60 nm to the northwest of the cold
front, from 25N northward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow
covers the Atlantic Ocean to the east of the cold front, and to
the west and northwest of the cold front. A 1022 mb high pressure
center is near 35N19W. A 1026 mb high pressure center is near
31N59W.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from 14N to 23N between 60W and 70W.
Fresh to strong northerly winds, and faster wind speeds, are to
the north and northwest of the cold front, from 28N northward
between 40W and 50W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are in the
coastal waters of Africa from 21N to 30N. Moderate to fresh winds,
or slower, are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 12
feet from the cold front northward between 50W and 60W. The sea
heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 20N northward between 60W
and 70W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet within 240
nm of the coast of Africa from 15N to 22N. The sea heights range
from 4 feet to 7 feet elsewhere.

Fresh to strong easterly winds south of 23N and west of 70W will
gradually diminish through early Fri. Strong southerly winds, with
frequent gusts to gale force will continue off northeastern
Florida through tonight ahead of a cold front that will move
across the waters offshore northeastern Florida early on Fri, then
across the northern waters through Sat. The front is forecast to
become stationary across the central waters Sat night. Scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to precede the front
tonight. Another cold front may move across the basin late in the
weekend into early next week.

$$
MT/SK
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