[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 280515
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Sam, located several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward
Islands.

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic
several hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands continues
to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form in a day or two while the
disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A well-defined low pressure area associated with the remnants
of Peter is located a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. The shower
and thunderstorm activity associated with this system has become
less organized since early Monday.  Although strong upper-level
winds are likely to prevent significant development, this system
could still become a short-lived tropical depression later today or
tonight while it moves northeastward at about 10 mph.  By Wednesday,
however, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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