[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 232332
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sam, located about 1600 miles east-southeast of the northern
Leeward Islands.

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of
Odette, is located a little more than 600 miles west-northwest of
the westernmost Azores.  Showers and thunderstorms remain limited
near the low, and this system has only a brief window of opportunity
to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone while it moves generally
south-southeastward over marginally warmer waters during the next
day or so.  Strong upper-level winds are expected to develop over
the system beginning tomorrow, which should then limit further
development.  Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred
miles southeast of Bermuda is associated with a surface and
upper-level trough.  Some tropical or subtropical development
of this system could occur in the next day or two as it moves
generally north-northwestward.  Strong upper-level winds should
prohibit further development by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
the end of this weekend.  Thereafter, environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system as
it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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