[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Sep 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized in
association with 1010 mb low near 10N31W, along a tropical wave
located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
However, satellite wind data indicate that the system still lacks
a well- defined center. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain conducive for additional development, and there is a high
chance that a tropical depression is likely to form in a day or
two while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 kt across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. A gale warning has
been issued accordingly cover the waters mainly from 08N to 12N
between 35W and 45W starting early Thu. Please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website- https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest Peter NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Depression Peter is centered near 20.8N 65.3W at 22/0300
UTC or 150 nm NNE of San Juan Puerto Rico, and moving NW at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Reports from buoy 41043
located just east of the center of Peter indicate seas have
subsided and are likely no more than 10 to 11 ft in the vicinity
of Peter. Convection had been limited with the center of Peter
fully exposed, but there has been a recent burst of convection
within 120 nm in the east quadrant of the center of Peter. The
depression will continue on a NW track, moving farther away from
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through this afternoon, then
gradually will turn more northward and weaken to a remnant low Thu,
before eventually drifting northward and dissipating through the
weekend. Meanwhile, swells generated by Peter are affecting the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, and will continue
spreading westward to the Bahamas later today.

Tropical Depression Rose is centered near 23.4N 38.4W at 22/0900
UTC or 930 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are peaking at 12
near northeast of the center. An area of fresh to strong winds
with seas at 8 to 11 ft are evident up to 210 nm in a semicircle NE
of the center. The center of Rose remains fully exposed, to the
west of a diminishing area of scattered moderate convection. Rose
should gradually turn toward the north tonight or early Thu
morning, then turning to the NE on Friday. Rose will remain a
tropical depression through Thu and might weaken to a remnant low
Friday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website-
https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Rose
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W from 15N southward through
the 1010 mb low near 10N31W, and moving W near 10 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up from 10N to
13N between 30W and 32W. As mentioned in the Special Features
section, a gale warning has been issued related to this area of
low pressure. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for the latest
formation potential.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough passes through the Senegal coast near 14N17W
through the 1010 mb low mentioned in the Tropical Waves section to
09N31W. The ITCZ continues from 04N32W 11N55W. No significant
convection is noted near the ITCZ.

The E end of E Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered
showers and thunderstorms off the western Caribbean coast of
Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb area of high pressure centered near 26N92W is shifting
east ahead of a cold front moving into the northwest Gulf,
currently reaching from near Lake Charles, Louisiana to Corpus
Christi, Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
along the cold front. A few showers are also evident off Sarasota
Florida. Fresh NW winds are following the front. Fresh NE winds
are noted off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, along with
2 to 4 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are 1
to 3 ft over the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will continue to move southeastward
through Thu, stall from roughly Fort Myers, Florida to the coast
of Veracruz, Mexico near 18N95W Fri, then dissipate Sat. Fresh to
strong winds will follow the front over the northwest and north-
central Gulf into tonight. Fresh to strong winds will funnel along
the coast of Veracruz Thu, with seas building to 8 ft. Looking
ahead, winds and seas will diminish across basin Sat and Sun as
high pressure builds over the northern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Depression Peter.

Convergent trades are causing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms between the southern peninsula of Haiti and Jamaica,
as well as off Colombia. Light to gentle trades and seas of 2 to
4 ft prevail across much of the basin. Seas at the Mona Passage
will be higher at 4 to 6 ft due to swell produced by Tropical
Depression Peter.

For the forecast, Peter will continue to weaken to a remnant low
as it moves farther to the north of the area. As this occurs,
trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will diminish through
Thu night. Fresh trade winds will return to the south-central
Caribbean by late Sun as high pressure builds north of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Depressions Peter NNE of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and
Rose WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands; and the gale warning and tropical
formation potential related to a low pressure/tropical wave SW of
the Cabo Verde Islands.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands has been erupting since 19/1410 UTC. Satellite imagery
shows volcanic ash approximately 30 nm W of the volcano as well
as the hot spot related to the eruption. Marine and aviation
interests should monitor this on-going situation by reading
Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

A cold front curves southwestward from the NE Atlantic across
32N42W to near 27N56W, then continues northwestward as a
stationary front to central South Carolina. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are active along the front between 74W and
76W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections
for additional convection across the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to
strong NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted north of the frontal
boundary. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 8 ft are also noted
off northwest Africa. Elsewhere, other than the area near Peter
and Rose, generally moderate trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are
noted.

For the forecast west of 65W, Peter will move to 22.2N 66.7W this
afternoon, 23.2N 66.9W Thu morning, then become a remnant low and
move to 24.1N 66.5W Thu afternoon. The remnant low of Peter will
continue northward to 25.1N 65.8W Fri morning, 26.5N 64.7W Fri
afternoon, and dissipate Sat. Meanwhile, a cold front will move
off the northeast Florida coast tonight, continue to the southeast
Thu, stall from 31N77W to near Fort Pierce, Florida by late Fri,
then dissipate through late Sat.

$$
Christensen
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