[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion
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Sun Sep 19 07:53:57 CDT 2021
WTNT41 KNHC 191253
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Peter Special Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021
Satellite imagery as well as data from a Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the center of Peter is over 100 n mi
west-southwest of its forecast position. Therefore, a special
advisory for track is being issued. The forecast track has been
adjusted through the first 60 h, resulting in a slight southward
adjustment of the track through the first couple of days. The
aircraft also measured 925 mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, which
supports an initial intensity of 40 kt. No adjustments were made
to the intensity forecast. The next full advisory will be issued at
1500 UTC.
Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical
storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward
Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there
should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is
possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the
north of the area.
Key Messages:
1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter
may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding from late
Sunday into Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the
Northern Leeward Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1300Z 17.6N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 18.2N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 19.3N 58.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 20.2N 61.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 21.3N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 22.6N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 24.3N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 25.8N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 27.7N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Latto
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