[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Sep 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly formed Tropical Depression Sixteen is centered near 16.4N
53.1W at 19/0300 UTC or 580 nm E of N Leeward Islands, and moving
WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas
are ranging from 10 to 11 ft near and N of the center. An area of
moderate to fresh with locally strong winds with seas at 7 to 9 ft
are evident N and NE of the center from 17N to 23N between 49W and
59W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is near and
up to 130 nm in a semicircle NE of the center. Sixteen is going to
continue a WNW track with little change in speed over the next
few days, passing N of the N Leeward Islands Mon and Tue. Steady
strengthening is forecast through Sun night, possibly becoming a
tropical storm Sun. Heavy rain and large swells are expected to
impact the N Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Interests across these areas should monitor this system closely.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecasts at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a 1008 mb low pressure
centered about 310 nm SW of the Cabo Verde Islands near 10N27W
are showing signs of organization. An area of fresh S to SW winds
with seas at 6 to 8 ft can be found S and SE of the low from 06N
to 10N between 22W and 29W. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or two while
moving toward the NW at 10 to 15 mph to the west of the Cabo Verde
Islands. This system has a high chance for tropical cyclone
formation in the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. For sea
conditions near this system, please read the Meteo-France High
Seas Forecast at:
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 26W from 19N southward through
the low mentioned in the Special Features section above, and
moving W near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen near the low from 08N to 12N between 27W and
31W. Scattered moderate convection is present farther N over the
Cabo Verde Islands from 15N to 17N between 19W and 27W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends across the Mauritania coast at 17N16W
through the 1008 mb low pressure mentioned in the Special
Features section, and another low near 07N35W to 06N40W. The ITCZ
then continues from 06N40W to 10N47W. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is occurring S of the monsoon trough along the coast of
Gambia, Guinea-Bissau and Guinea. Scattered moderate convection
is present near the second low from 04N to 07N between 34W and
38W, and also near the ITCZ from 03N to 06N between 38W and 43W.

The E end of the E Pacific monsoon trough is triggering numerous
heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms near the Costa Rica-
Panama border, over N Colombia and adjacent waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A persistent surface trough meanders east-northeastward from the
W central Gulf to N Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are noted across the central and NE Gulf, and N Florida. Another
surface trough over the W Bay of Campeche is causing numerous
heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms there, and near Jalapa,
Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas up to 4 ft are
possible near these showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, a broad
surface ridge over the SW and E central Gulf is allowing light to
gentle ESE to S winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft to prevail across much
of the Gulf.

For the forecast, Weak high pressure will extend across the E and
central Gulf of Mexico through the early part of the week. This
pattern will support continued gentle to moderate winds and mostly
slight seas across the Gulf through the next several days.
Looking ahead, a weak cold front may move into the NW and N
central Gulf by mid week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the N central basin, including SE
Cuba and SW Hispaniola. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
above for additional convection in the Caribbean Basin. Gentle to
moderate trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident across the
central and W basin. Gentle trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail
over the E basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression (T.D.) Sixteen is near
16.4N 53.1W 1008 mb at 19/0300 UTC and moving WNW at 12 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts 40 kt. Sixteen will
strengthen to a tropical storm near 17.3N 54.8W Sun morning, move
to the NE of the Leeward Islands near 18.5N 57.3W Sun evening.
T.D. Sixteen will continue to move northward and away from the
Leewards thereafter through mid week. T.D. Sixteen will weaken and
displace the Atlantic ridge currently north of the region,
allowing trades winds over the S central Caribbean to diminish
briefly Sun night, although fresh trade winds will persist Mon
through mid week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
newly formed Tropical Depression Sixteen E of the Leeward Islands
and a tropical disturbance SW of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Convergent trade winds are coupling with divergent flow aloft to
generate scattered moderate to isolated strong convection NE of
the Leeward Islands from 18N to 23N between 51W and 60W. A modest
surface trough is producing scattered moderate convection from 29N
to 31N between 47W and 51W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection across the
Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic ridge extends southwestward from a 1028 mb Azores
high, passing S of Bermuda to another high N of the Bahamas.
These features are providing light to gentle winds with seas at 2
to 4 ft N of 24N between 40W and the Georgia-N Florida coast.
Other than the area N and NE of Tropical Depression Sixteen, NE
to ENE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen N of 16N between the
NW African coast and 40W, including waters near the Canary and
Cabo Verde Islands; and NE of the Leeward Islands N of 17N between
40W and Bahamas. Other than the area near the low mentioned in
the Special Features section, light to gentle winds and seas at 4
to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Depression Sixteen is
southeast of the area near 16.4N 53.1W 1008 mb at 19/0300 UTC,
and moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40
kt. Sixteen will strengthen to a tropical storm near 17.3N 54.8W
Sun morning, move to 18.5N 57.3W Sun evening, 19.4N 59.8W Mon
morning, 20.3N 61.9W Mon evening, 21.3N 64.1W Tue morning, and
22.3N 65.5W Tue evening. Sixteen will change little in intensity
as it moves to the southeast of Bermuda by late Wed. Elsewhere
west of 70W, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
will persist over open waters through the early part of the week,
with swell to 8 ft associated with the tropical storm reaching the
waters east of 75W by Wed.

$$

Chan
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