[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 161737
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, located near the central coast of
Louisiana.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave and broad
area of low pressure located a little more than 900 miles west-
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have become less organized since
yesterday.  However, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical
depression is still likely to form over the weekend.  This system is
expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical
Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of
low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of
the Outer Banks of North Carolina are beginning to show some signs
of organization. However, recent satellite wind data suggest that
the system currently lacks a well-defined center.  An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has just begun its investigation
of the disturbance.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive to support additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or so while
the system moves northward to north-northeastward off the southeast
and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts.  Regardless of development, this
system could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and
mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this week and this weekend.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction
Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave along the
west coast of Africa.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
only marginally conducive, and development, if any, of this system
should be slow to occur over the next few days while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header
TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov

High Seas Forecasts for the system off the Outer Banks of North
Carolina issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center can be found
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown
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