[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS84 KCRP 130512
HLSCRP
TXZ231>234-241>247-342>347-442-443-447-131315-

Tropical Storm Nicholas Local Statement Special Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX  AL142021
1212 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

This product covers South Texas

**NICHOLAS RE-FORMS TO THE NORTH AND STRENGTHENS**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
      for Coastal Kleberg, Coastal Nueces, Coastal San Patricio,
      Inland Kleberg, Inland San Patricio, Kleberg Islands, and
      Nueces Islands
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Inland Refugio
    - A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Aransas Islands, Calhoun Islands,
      Coastal Aransas, Coastal Calhoun, Coastal Refugio, and Inland
      Calhoun
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bee, Goliad, Inland
      Nueces, Jim Wells, Live Oak, and Victoria

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 210 miles south-southeast of Port Aransas TX or about 250
      miles south of Port Oconnor TX
    - 24.8N 96.3W
    - Storm Intensity 50 mph
    - Movement North-northwest or 340 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Nicholas is expected to become more organized and
strengthen tonight in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This system is
forecast to move generally northward tonight and Monday. Nicholas is
expected to move just offshore the Lower and Middle Texas coast before
making landfall along the Middle or Upper Texas coast late Monday
evening or Monday night. Periods of heavy rainfall expected Monday
through Tuesday morning with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 with locally
higher amounts possible along the Coastal Bend. Widespread flash
flooding may occur across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads.
Storm surge inundation of 2 to 4 feet is possible as Nicholas moves
closer to the coast. Tropical storm force winds are likely to arrive
Monday with gusts to hurricane force possible. Nicholas may strengthen
to a Hurricane as it nears the coast. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch
remains in effect north of Port Aransas.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
      become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited
to significant impacts across the Coastal Plains and Brush Country.

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend, and Victoria Crossroads.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the Brush Country.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across the immediate coast where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the bays and intracoastal waterways.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across South Texas, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge zone.
Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find yourself
cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed evacuation
orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Corpus Christi TX around 4 AM, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

JCP
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