[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 102347
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Larry, located over the western Atlantic several hundred miles
southwest of Newfoundland, Canada.

The northern part of a tropical wave is interacting with a surface
trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The merger of these
features is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea, Central America, the
Yucatan peninsula, and Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development over the weekend,
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday
before the system moves near or onshore of the western Gulf of
Mexico coast.  Regardless of development, this disturbance is
expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America
and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday which may lead to flash
flooding and mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely
reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas
and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant
rainfall amounts will be possible, resulting in limited flash and
urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A strong tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for additional development
and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or
early next week as the system moves west-northwestward over the far
eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands.  Interests in the Cabo
Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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