[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Sep 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Larry is centered near 30.3N 60.8W at 09/0600 UTC or
235 NM ESE of Bermuda moving NNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85
kt with gusts to 100 kt. Seas are peaking near 42 ft close to
the center and may increase some during the next two days.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted
within 90 NM of the center.  On the forecast track, the center
of Larry should pass east of Bermuda today, and move near or
over southeastern Newfoundland late Friday. Gradual weakening is
forecast during the next couple of days, but Larry is expected
to remain a hurricane during that time. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Mindy is centered near 30.5N 84.0W at 09/0600 UTC
or 15 NM ENE of Tallahassee Florida moving NE at 17 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 60 NM of the center. Seas to 12 ft
just south of Apalachicola, though these will diminish quickly
on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is
expected to move into the Atlantic this morning. Gradual
weakening is expected as Mindy moves over land and into an area
of unfavorable upper-level winds. Please read the latest
Offshore Zones Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml and the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 26W from 18N southward across
the Cabo Verde Islands, and moving W around 15 kt. A surface
trough is noted in association with this wave. No deep
convection is currently occurring in association with this wave.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 16N southward
and moving W around 15 kt. A distinct surface trough is noted
from 09N40W to 13N39W, which is becoming separated from the
tropical wave at 700 mb. Scattered moderate convection is found
from 08N-14N between 38W-43W.

A third Atlantic tropical wave is near 63W from 15N southward
across Venezuela, and moving W around 15 kt. The wave is mainly
monitored through the 700 mb trough diagnostics and the 700 mb
rawindsonde observations. No deep convection is currently
occurring in association with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N17W to 10N28W.
Farther west, the ITCZ extends from 08N42W to 06N56W, inland
over Suriname and French Guiana. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 05N-08N between 25N-35N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Mindy.

North of 27N and east of 87W, winds are SW fresh to strong along
the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Mindy. Elsewhere winds
are moderate or weaker across the Gulf this evening. Except in
the vicinity of Mindy, seas are only 1-3 ft across the Gulf.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Mindy is near 29.9N 84.5W 1002
mb at 11 PM EDT moving NE at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
40 kt gusts 50 kt. Mindy will move inland to 31.0N 81.8W Thu
morning then weaken to a tropical depression near 32.2N 77.7W
Thu evening. Tropical Depression Mindy will reach 33.1N 73.7W
Fri morning, 33.7N 70.7W Fri evening, then become a remnant low
and move to 34.1N 68.5W Sat morning. Mindy will dissipate NW of
Bermuda late Sun. Aside from Tropical Storm Mindy, a trough of
low pressure over the SW Gulf will produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms in that area into the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak north-south pressure gradient across the Caribbean is
forcing only fresh E trades over the S central Caribbean and
moderate or weaker trades elsewhere. Seas of 5-6 ft due to swell
from Hurricane Larry continue in the Anegada Passage and the
Mona Passage. Seas are also 5-6 ft over the central Caribbean
with 3-4 ft elsewhere. Isolated moderate convection is noted
from 15N-18N between 79W-85W.

For the forecast, swells generated by Hurricane Larry will
gradually subside across Atlantic waters of the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola into Thu. As Larry moves farther
north, the Atlantic ridge will build westward N of the Caribbean
Sea bringing an increase in the trade wind flow late Thu into
Fri. Locally strong winds are possible offshore Colombia and the
Gulf of Honduras, mainly during the nights.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Major Hurricane Larry southeast of Bermuda.

Aside from Hurricane Larry, weak Bermuda/Azores Highs are
centered at 34N45W and 36N24W. The E trades are generally
moderate or lighter across the basin, with the exception being
of the very large wind field of Larry which has fresh or
stronger winds around 250 NM radius from the center as observed
by scatterometer winds this evening. Seas are 5-7 ft across the
tropical N Atlantic, except in the vicinity of Larry. A Jason-3
altimeter pass indicated seas of 30 ft near 30N61W earlier this
evening. No significant deep convection exists aside that
described with Larry, the tropical waves, and the ITCZ/monsoon
trough.

For the forecast, large swells, currently E of 70W, generated by
Hurricane Larry to the east, will continue to propagate to 75W
Thu and 80W Thu night, with seas of over 8 ft expected. Seas
will then subside into the weekend. Tropical Storm Mindy, which
made landfall in the Florida Panhandle this evening, will weaken
to a depression as it moves ENE, moving offshore into the
Atlantic and remaining north of the area, as a tropical
depression, Thu and Fri.

$$
Landsea
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