[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070909
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Sep 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Major Hurricane Larry at 07/0900 UTC is near 23.8N
55.1W. Larry is moving toward the NW, or 315 degrees, at 9 kt.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 105 knots with gusts to 130 knots. Larry
is about 800 nm SE of Bermuda. Numerous strong convection is
occurring within 210 nm of the center. Please, read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml,
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31N, from 18N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 17N between 23W and 34W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W, from 15N southward,
moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection has
developed from 04N to 08N between 45W and 53W.

A tropical wave previously in the Caribbean is now mainly in the
eastern Pacific Ocean, with only a small portion of the wave still
in the Gulf of Honduras. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted over portions of Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa
Rica, and adjacent Caribbean waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Mauritania
near 20N16W and continues to 12N27W to 07N35W. The ITCZ then
continues from 07N35W to 04N46W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted along the coast of Guinea. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 30W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is along 91W, from 25N southward. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 21N to 26N
between 85W and 92W. Elsewhere throughout the Gulf, only isolated
convection is ongoing. The surface through previously in the NE
Gulf and an outflow boundary in the northern Gulf from earlier
inland convection have both dissipated early this morning.
Generally gentle southerly winds prevail across the basin,
although to the east of the surface trough and N of the Yucatan
Peninsula, moderate to locally fresh SE winds are occurring. Seas
are 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, weak low pressure N of the Yucatan Peninsula
will move slowly NE over the central and NE Gulf of Mexico over
the next couple of days. Upper level winds are currently
unfavorable for development, but they are forecast to become
somewhat conducive for limited development as the system nears the
northern Gulf coast Wed and Wed night. Aside from this low
pressure, high pressure will bring light to gentle winds and
slight seas into late week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for details on a wave exiting the
basin into Central America this morning.

Aside from the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is
ongoing in the vicinity of the eastern extension of the eastern
Pacific Ocean monsoon trough, that stretches from 10N75W into
southern Nicaragua. The convection is confined to areas S of 15N
and W of 70W. Otherwise, only isolated trade wind showers are
moving E in moderate trades. Seas are 3 to 6 ft, highest in the
south central Caribbean. Atlantic passages in the Leeward Islands
are experiencing swell from Major Hurricane Larry, that is well NE
of the area, so some seas of 4 to 7 ft are observed.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Larry will continue to move
farther north of the area into late week. Associated moderate to
large swell will continue to move into the region through mid
week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trade winds will persist, pulsing
to fresh winds off Colombia mainly at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Hurricane Larry information is given in the Special Features
section above.

A low pressure trough from 31N68W to 28N74W is inducing scattered
moderate convection from 24N to 31N between 65W and 75W.
Otherwise, and aside from Hurricane Larry, high pressure dominates
the basin, anchored by a 1019 mb high pressure centered near
32N47W and a 1016 mb high pressure centered near 26N70W. This is
leading to generally gentle winds, aside from S of 20N, where
moderate to locally fresh trades prevail. Seas average 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Larry will move to 24.9N 56.0W
this afternoon, 26.5N 57.4W Wed morning, 28.4N 59.1W Wed
afternoon, 30.6N 60.8W Thu morning, 33.3N 61.8W Thu afternoon, and
37.1N 61.0W Fri morning. Larry will become extratropical as it
moves near Newfoundland early Sat. Large swell generated by Larry
will continue to propagate across the eastern forecast waters,
reaching 70W by Wed, and 75W Thu night.

$$
KONARIK
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