[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040955
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Sep 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Larry is centered near 16.3N 44.6W at 04/0900 UTC
or 990 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted within 150 nm of the center. Also, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is located south of the
center, from 10N to 14N between 41W and 46W. Peak seas are 33 ft.
Larry will continue moving WNW through late today. A slower NW
motion is expected Sunday through Tuesday. Additional
strengthening is forecast this weekend. Larry is expected to
remain at major hurricane strength through Wednesday night. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave currently along 15W from 05N to 20N will emerge
off the African coast later today as it moves W at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 15N, E of 21W.

An Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 33W, from 19N
southward, is moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection has developed from 05N to 16N between 28W and 35W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave with an axis along 70W, extends from
Hispaniola to NW Venezuela, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted E of the wave, S
of 15N between 61W and 70W. Fresh trades are occurring on both
sides of this wave.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 82W, from
12N southward, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted N of 12N and W of 79W,
including portions of Panama and Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Mauritania
near 17N16W to 13N25W, then reestablishes to the SW of Hurricane
Larry, from 11N46W to 09N50W. The ITCZ extends from 09N50W to
09N61W. Aside from convection in association with Hurricane Larry
and that associated with features depicted in the Tropical Waves
section above, scattered moderate convection is noted S of 10N and
W of 54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from just north of Tampa Bay, Florida,
to near the mouth of the Mississippi River, with no significant
convection associated with it. High pressure dominates S of the
front, anchored by a 1015 mb high centered near 27N91W. This is
leading to light to gentle winds and slight seas across most of
the basin. A trough of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula is
inducing some moderate E winds to the west of the peninsula.

For the forecast, a surface trough currently over portions of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula will move NW this
weekend, bringing heavy rainfall. Sunday, this trough will enter
the SW or south-central Gulf of Mexico, then move N or NE over the
central Gulf of Mexico through the middle of next week.
Unfavorable upper level winds should limit development through
Mon, but environmental conditions may become somewhat favorable
for gradual development Tue or Wed. Elsewhere, a stationary front
over the NE Gulf will gradually dissipate into early Sun, while
weak high pressure dominates much of the remainder of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for details on a tropical wave
entering the central Caribbean and another in the far SW basin.

Aside from convection associated with this waves, scattered
moderate convection is occurring in the Gulf of Honduras in
association with a low pressure trough over Central America.
Otherwise, high pressure dominates.

Moderate to fresh winds encompass the central and eastern
Caribbean, as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Locally strong trades
are occurring off the coast of Colombia, and gentle to moderate
east winds prevail in the northwest Caribbean. Seas are generally
3 to 6 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean, 4 to 7 ft offshore
Colombia, and 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Larry will move to 17.2N 46.5W
this afternoon, 18.4N 48.6W Sun morning, 19.7N 50.7W Sun
afternoon, 21.0N 52.6W Mon morning, 22.0N 54.3W Mon afternoon, and
23.3N 56.0W Tue morning. Larry will change little in intensity as
it moves well northeast of the Leeward Islands early Wed. Large
swell generated by Hurricane Larry are expected to propagate
across the waters E of the Leeward Islands Sun, then spread W of
65W Mon and Mon night. Elsewhere, fresh to occasionally strong
trade winds will pulse off Colombia through late today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Major
Hurricane Larry.

A stationary front extends from 32N72W to Cape Canaveral, Florida.
A 1013 mb low is along the front near 29N77W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted E of this surface low, and N of 26N, but
activity is also being enhanced by an upper-level low S of
Bermuda, thus scattered convection extends all the way E to around
58W. To the south of these features, a 1016 mb high pressure is
centered between Cuba and the NW Bahamas. Moderate to fresh NE
winds are occurring to the N and W of the stalled front, with
generally gentle to locally moderate SW winds elsewhere.

To the E, high pressure dominates, with high pressure centers of
1020 mb and 1019 mb located at 30N49W and 30N37W, respectively. A
surface trough extends from 32N21N to 26N27W, with scattered
moderate convection within 30 nm either side of the trough, N of
28N. Mainly gentle winds are occurring outside of the influence of
Hurricane Larry, but some moderate to locally fresh winds are
occurring closer to the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Larry will move to 17.2N 46.5W
this afternoon, 18.4N 48.6W Sun morning, 19.7N 50.7W Sun
afternoon, 21.0N 52.6W Mon morning, 22.0N 54.3W Mon afternoon, and
23.3N 56.0W Tue morning. Larry will change little in intensity as
it moves well northeast of the Leeward Islands early Wed.
Tropical storm force winds are possible E of 60W Sun night and
Mon. Large swell generated by Hurricane Larry are expected to
propagate across the waters E of the Leeward Islands Sun, then
spread W of 65W Mon and Mon night.

$$
KONARIK
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