[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Larry is centered near 15.5N 43.3W at 04/0300 UTC or
1070 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is within 120 nm of the center. A feeder band
extending out to 210 nm in the SW quadrant contains scattered
moderate to strong convection. Peak seas are 31 ft. Larry will
continue moving WNW through late Saturday. A slower NW motion is
expected Sunday through Tuesday. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next day or two. Larry is expected to remain
at major hurricane strength through Wednesday. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been added to the analysis over west Africa
along 13W from 05N-20N, moving W at around 15 kt. The tropical
wave is forecast to emerge off the coast of Africa by late
Saturday. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N-17N,
between 10W-20W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 30/31W from
19N southward, moving W at 20 kt. Dry Saharan air is preventing
any significant convection at this time.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 67W from 20N
southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted east of the wave from 10N-15N between
60W-67W, including near Grenada and along portions of the north
coast of Venezuela. NOAA buoy 42059 near 15.3N 67.5W is
reporting ENE winds 19 kt gusting to 21 kt with 5 ft significant
wave heights at midnight local time.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 81/82W
from 12N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted south of 11.5N and west of
76.5W in the far SW Caribbean, including over Panama and western
Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Mauritania
near 17N16W to 13N24W, where there is a discontinuation of the
monsoon trough. It resumes southwest of Hurricane Larry near
11N46W to 09N50W. The ITCZ continues from 09N50W to 09N61W.
Aside from the convection mentioned above, scattered moderate
convection is seen south of ITCZ from 06N-09N between 53W-60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 0300 UTC, a stationary front extends from New Port Richey
Florida near 28N83W to near the Mouth of the Mississippi River
with only isolated showers noted in the vicinity. South of the
front, 1015 mb high pressure is centered near 27N91W. Ridging
with light to gentle winds extends southeastward from the high
to a 1017 mb high pressure in the Florida Straits, analyzed near
24N79W at 0300 UTC. Gentle winds cover much of the Gulf of
Mexico, although fresh E winds are noted off the NW coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Sea are 1 to 3 ft across the basin, except 2
to 4 ft off the NW Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, a surface trough currently inland over Yucatan
and Guatemala along 90W will move NW over the next few days,
bringing potential for heavy rainfall. The disturbance is
forecast to emerge over the southwestern or south-central Gulf
of Mexico on Sunday, and then move northward or northeastward
over the central Gulf of Mexico through the middle of next week.
Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to limit development
through Monday, but conditions could become marginally favorable
for some gradual development on Tuesday or Wednesday. The chance
of tropical cyclone development during the next 5 days is low.
Elsewhere, a stationary front over the north-central and
northeast Gulf will gradually dissipate into early Sun, while
weak high pressure dominates much of the remainder of the basin.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the tropical waves section above for details on a
convectively active tropical wave that is presently over the
eastern Caribbean.

A mid to upper-level ridge is producing dry air and subsidence
over the central Caribbean. Scattered moderate showers are over
the northwest Caribbean, to the east of a surface trough that is
inland along 90W over the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen over portions of
Guatemala and southern Belize. Similar convection is inland over
northern Colombia and eastern Panama, strongest from 07N to
08.5N between 73.5W and 78.5W.

The latest ASCAT pass shows gentle to moderate winds generally
north of 17N between 70W-80W, and north of 20N west of 80W.
Farther south, fresh trades prevail across much of the basin,
with locally strong in the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 4
to 7 ft in the south-central to SW Caribbean, 1 to 3 ft south of
Cuba through the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, and 3 to 5 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, Hurricane Larry will move to near 20N52W Sun
evening, near 22N55W Mon evening, then pass well NE of the
Leeward Islands, moving to near 25N 58.5W Tue evening. Large
swell generated by the hurricane are expected to reach the
Leeward Islands and NE Caribbean passages Sun night and Monday,
persisting through at least Wed. Elsewhere, fresh to
occasionally strong trade winds will pulse off Colombia through
late Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane
Larry.

A stationary front extends from 31N75W to Cape Canaveral
Florida. A 1013 mb low is along the front at 29.5N 77W at 0300
UTC. A broad upper-level low is centered near 26N66W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen north of 25N between 65W-75W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 25N to the front, between
75W and the east coast of Florida. A 1017 mb high pressure is
centered in the Florida Straits near 24N79W at 0300 UTC. The
latest ASCAT pass shows fresh NE winds north of the front, where
seas are likely around 5 ft. Gentle wind speeds prevail
elsewhere west of 60W from 20N-30N, with seas of 3 to 4 ft.
Farther east, another upper-level low is noted near 27N55W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 25.5N to 31N between 53.5W
and 60W. Surface high pressure ridging covers the central
subtropical Atlantic, anchored by 1022 mb high pressure centers
near 30N49W and 31N37W. A surface trough extends from 31N22W to
25N28W, with scattered moderate convection seen north of 28N
between 19W-22W. Gentle to moderate winds cover much of the
basin outside of the circulation of Hurricane Larry. The latest
ASCAT pass shows strong winds extend north and NW of Larry as
far north as 22.5N, with fresh winds extending to 24.5N.

For the forecast, major Hurricane Larry will move to near 17N48W
Sat evening, near 20N52W Sun evening, near 22N55W Mon evening,
and near 25N 58.5W Tue evening. Large swell generated by the
hurricane are expected to propagate across the waters E of the
Leeward Islands Sun, then spread W of 65W Mon and Mon night, and
west of 70W Tue. Through Sun evening, the radius of 12-ft or
greater seas is forecast to extend outward 300 nm from the
center of Larry. Peak seas near the center will build to over 40
ft later this weekend.

$$
Hagen
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