[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012049
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Sep 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Larry is centered near 12.5N 29.4W at 01/2100 UTC
or 320 nm WSW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving W at
19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of
the center of Larry. Larry is expected to move around the south
and southwest sides of a subtropical ridge during the next five
days, with a general westward motion for 24-36 hours, followed
by a turn toward the west-northwest and, by 96-120 hours, a turn
toward the northwest. Conditions appear favorable for rapid
intensification during the next 36-48 hours, and the intensity
forecast now calls for Larry to become a hurricane in less than
12 hours and become a major hurricane in about 48 hours. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

TD Kate has been downgraded to remnant low near 28.5N 52.9W
01/2100Zor 830 nm NE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving NNW
at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the remnant
low from 24N to 30N between 50W and 56W. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 49W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N to 09N between 48W and 51W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 76W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 72W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N16N to 13N24W. It resumes from
10N33W to 08N47W. The ITCZ extends from 08N51W to 09N60W. Aside
from convection noted above, Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 09N to 17N east of 20W, and from 07N to 12N between
34W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends over the northern Gulf the Florida
panhandle SW to near 28N89W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted N of 26N E of 92W across the northern
half of Florida. High presure ridge extends across the Gulf south
of the trough. Fresh to locally string winds are over the far NE
Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the
5-7 ft range over the far NE Gulf and 3-5 ft elsewhere. The
exception is over the far SE Gulf where seas are in the 1-2 ft
range.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southwest to west winds over
the NE Gulf will persist through tonight ahead of a frontal
trough. Then, light and variable winds will prevail over the NE
Gulf during the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, a ridge will
dominate the Gulf region producing mainly gentle to moderate
southerly winds through Fri. Pulsing fresh winds are expected
northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Low pressure is centered near 13.5N82W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 NM north of the low. Some slow
development of this system remains possible over the next day or
two if it remains over open water while moving west-northwestward
or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph along the coast of Central
America. By early next week, the system will have another
opportunity for gradual development in the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible
across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula by
late this week into the weekend. There is a low chance for
tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours. Please see
the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for more on this
feature.

Fresh to locally strong winds are noted just north of the low
pressure area. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas
are in the 3-5 ft range in the vicinity of the low as well as
over the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere seas in the 1-3 ft range
prevail.

For the forecast,

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see above for more information on TS Larry and the remnant
low of Kate.

Aside from the remnant low of Kate and TS Larry, 1020 mb high
pressure is centered near 28N24W. A surface trough is just east
of Florida, with another surface trough across the central
Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are noted off the NE coast of
Florida. Gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 3-6 ft
range across the open waters, and 1-2 ft west of the Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 65W,

$$
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