[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312257
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Oct 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Wanda is centered near 36.3N 43.2W at 31/2100
UTC or 780 nm W of the Azores moving W at 1 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 180 nm of the center in the NE and SE quadrants and
less coverage in west semicircle. Slight strengthening is
possible during the next couple of days. A southeastward motion
is expected today, followed by an eastward motion on Monday. A
turn to the northeast or north is forecast to occur on Tuesday.
Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the Ocean Prediction Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W from 18N, moving W at
5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N-22N
between 31W-36W. The convection is being enhanced by upper
level diffluence from an upper low centered near 22N41W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough exits the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 1008
mb low pressure near 11.8N29W to 06N34W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 09N-17N between 22W-32W
and along the coast of Africa from Guinea to Liberia.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from Ft. Myers Florida to 27N86W. Some
clouds are near the trough, but no significant precipitation is
noted here or anywhere in the Gulf of Mexico. Weak surface high
pressure ridging extends from Louisiana southward to the southern
Bay Campeche. Light to gentle winds cover most of the basin,
except moderate NW to N winds are found in the eastern Gulf. Seas
of 4 to 6 ft are occurring in the SE Gulf, Yucatan Channel and
western Florida Straits. Seas of 1 to 3 ft are over the western
Gulf.

For the forecast, remnant NW swell over the Yucatan Channel will
decay early this evening. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine
conditions will prevail through the early part of the week under
NE-E flow. Winds will become moderate to locally fresh on Thu and
will prevail through Fri night as a large ridge N of the area
extends across the gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 21N77W to
16N81W. Isolated showers and tstorms are near the front from
15N-19N between 78.5-79.5W. Isolated light showers are possible
elsewhere in the cloud cover within 120 nm NW of the front.
Otherwise, the precipitation associated with the front has
weakened and mostly dissipated. A surface trough extends from the
south coast of Jamaica to 1009 mb low pressure near 11N78W, where
the Pacific monsoon trough intercepts and continues west into
Costa Rica. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the
monsoon trough and S of the trough, mainly S of 14N. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are noted over the south-central
Caribbean from 11.5N-16N between 71W-75W. The latest ASCAT data
show fresh N winds within 90 nm of the coast of Nicaragua, from
11N-16N, west of 81.5W. Moderate N winds are west of the
stationary front. Moderate trades cover the eastern and central
Caribbean. Seas are 3 to 4 ft over the eastern and central
Caribbean and 3 to 5 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the stationary front will continue to weaken
this evening before dissipating early on Mon. Moderate to fresh
NNE winds offshore of Nicaragua to the west of a low pressure
near 11N78W will diminish to mainly moderate Mon and then prevail
through Tue as a remnant trough lingers in the area. Elsewhere,
a weak pressure gradient ahead of the front will support mainly
gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin through Fri
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 65W: A slow moving cold front is west of Bermuda from
31N66W to 22N75W, then continues into the Caribbean as a
stationary front from 22N75W to Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered
showers are along and within 90 nm east of the front. A recent
ASCAT data pass shows fresh S-SW winds within 120 nm east of the
front and north of 25N. Fresh W winds are occurring north of 29N
and west of 72W. Gentle to moderate wind speeds are occurring
elsewhere west of 65W, including over the Bahamas. Seas of 7 to 9
ft are likely occurring north of 27N and east of 78W, with 4 to
7 ft seas elsewhere north and east of the Bahamas.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 30N40W to 23N56W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 25N to 31N between
36W to 46W. Strong to near gale force SW winds are east of the
trough to 36W, mainly north of 27N, where seas are 8 to 12 ft.
Seas of 8 to 11 ft are elsewhere north of 26N between 33W-60W.
Seas of 8 to 11 ft will persist north of 26N between 35W-55W
through Monday night before subsiding Tuesday. Seas are 5 to 7 ft
across most of the remainder of the Atlantic, south of 26N. A
surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure near 30N22W.

The 1008 mb low pressure near 11.5N29W, mentioned above in the
monsoon trough section, continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. ASCAT shows winds of 25
kt east and northeast of the low. Seas are likely 7 to 10 ft
between the low and the Cabo Verde Islands. Slow development of
this system is possible during the next day or so before it moves
into a region of strong upper-level winds. This system is
expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15
kt during the next few days. The chance of formation within the
next 48 hours is low. See the latest NHC tropical weather outlook
at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front extending from
31N66W to the southern Bahamas transitions to a stationary front
near 22N75W to eastern Cuba. The cold front will move past
Bermuda early this evening and reach the Turks and Caicos before
dissipating farther east on Mon. Moderate to fresh winds N of 27N
on both sides of the front along with seas greater than 8 ft
will diminish this evening. Gentle to locally moderate NE flow
will prevail across the southern Bahamas and the Great Bahama
Bank through Wed. Surface ridging will build across the area on
Thu and support moderate E to SE winds over the SE offshore
waters ahead of the next front forecast to come off the coast of
NE Florida on Fri. Fresh to strong winds will follow this front.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. There is a
medium to high ash concentration in the vicinity of the volcano,
mainly to the northwest of the volcano. Marine and aviation
interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the
Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
Torres
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