[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311735
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Oct 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Wanda is centered near 36.4N 43.2W at 31/1500
UTC or 780 nm W of the Azores moving E at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
180 nm of the center in the NW, NE and SE quadrants. Slight
strengthening is possible during the next couple of days. A
southeastward motion is expected today, followed by an eastward
motion on Monday. A turn to the northeast or north is forecast to
occur on Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and
Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 35/36W from 07N-19N, moving W
at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N-21N
between 33W-36W. The convection is being enhanced by upper-level
diffluence from an upper-level low centered near 22N41W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough exits the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 1008 mb
low pressure near 11.5N29W to 1012 mb low pressure near 07N31W to
06N34W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 05N-17N between 22W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from Ft. Myers Florida to 27N86W. Some
clouds are near the trough, but no significant precipitation is
noted here or anywhere in the Gulf of Mexico. Weak surface high
pressure ridging extends from Louisiana southward to the southern
Bay Campeche. Light to gentle winds cover most of the basin,
except moderate NW to N winds are found in the eastern Gulf. Seas
of 4 to 6 ft are occurring in the SE Gulf, Yucatan Channel and
western Florida Straits. Seas of 1 to 3 ft are over the western
Gulf.

For the forecast, remnant NW swell over the eastern Gulf will
decay today. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine conditions will
prevail through the early part of the week under NE-E flow. Winds
will become moderate to locally fresh and veer to E-SE mid-week.
The next cold front may move into and through the Gulf by the end
of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 21N77W to 18N80W
to 15N82W. Isolated showers and tstorms are near the front from
18N-19N between 78.5-79.5W. Isolated light showers are possible
elsewhere in the cloud cover within 120 nm NW of the front.
Otherwise, the precipitation associated with the front has
weakened and mostly dissipated. A surface trough extends from the
south coast of Jamaica to 1010 mb low pressure near 12N78W.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are along the surface
trough north of 14N. The east Pacific monsoon trough extends from
11N73W to the 1010 mb low pressure near 12N78W to Costa Rica.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is associated with the
monsoon trough over the SW Caribbean, mainly south of 12.5N and
west of 75.5W, including along or near the coasts of Panama, Costa
Rica and southern Nicaragua. Scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are noted over the south-central Caribbean from 11.5N-16N
between 71W-75W. The latest ASCAT data show fresh N winds within
90 nm of the coast of Nicaragua, from 11N-16N, west of 81.5W.
Moderate N winds are west of the stationary front. Moderate trades
cover the eastern and central Caribbean. Seas are 3 to 4 ft over
the eastern and central Caribbean and 3 to 5 ft in the NW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, the stationary front from eastern Cuba to 15N82W
will weaken today before dissipating early on Mon. Moderate to
fresh NW-N winds offshore of Nicaragua will diminish to mainly
moderate Mon. Remnant NW swell behind the front in the NW
Caribbean will decay today. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient
ahead of the front will support mainly gentle to moderate trade
winds across the basin through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 65W: A slow moving cold front is west of Bermuda from
31N68W to 27N 70.5W to the Bahamas near 23N74W to eastern Cuba
near 21N77W. A broken line of scattered moderate showers and
isolated tstorms is along and within 90 nm east of the front. A
recent ASCAT data pass shows fresh S-SW winds within 120 nm east
of the front and north of 25N. Fresh W winds are occurring north
of 29N and west of 72W. Gentle to moderate wind speeds are
occurring elsewhere west of 65W, including over the Bahamas. Seas
of 7 to 9 ft are likely occurring north of 27N and east of 78W,
with 4 to 7 ft seas elsewhere north and east of the Bahamas.

East of 65W: Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N40W
to 26N48W to 24N57W. Scattered moderate convection and strong to
near gale force SW winds are east of the trough to 36W, mainly
north of 27N, where seas are 8 to 12 ft. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are
elsewhere north of 26N between 33W-60W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft will
persist north of 26N between 35W-55W through Monday night before
subsiding Tuesday. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across most of the remainder
of the Atlantic, south of 26N. A surface ridge extends from a
1023 mb high pressure near 30N20W to 22N42W to 21N56W to 1017 mb
high pressure near 24N62W to 1016 mb high pressure near 34N59W.

The 1008 mb low pressure near 11.5N29W, mentioned above in the
monsoon trough section, continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. ASCAT shows winds of 25
kt east and northeast of the low. Seas are likely 7 to 10 ft
between the low and the Cabo Verde Islands. Slow development of
this system is possible during the next day or so before it moves
into a region of strong upper-level winds. This system is
expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15
kt during the next few days. The chance of formation within the
next 48 hours is low. See the latest NHC tropical weather outlook
at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front extending from
31N68W to eastern Cuba will move past Bermuda early this evening
and reach the Turks and Caicos before dissipating farther east on
Mon. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected on both sides of
the front through early in the afternoon, mainly north of 27N.
Seas of 8 ft or greater north of 27N will also decay by this
evening. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate NE flow will
prevail across the southern Bahamas and the Great Bahama Bank into
mid-week.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. There is a
medium to high ash concentration in the vicinity of the volcano,
mainly to the northwest of the volcano. Marine and aviation
interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the
Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
Hagen
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