[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310610
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Oct 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly formed Subtropical Storm Wanda is centered near 36.2N 45.4W
at 31/0300 UTC or about 885 nm W of the Azores, and moving SE at
18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb and maximum
sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Wanda is expected
to continue a SE motion through Mon morning then turn gradually E
and ENE Mon afternoon and evening, and eventually NE on Tue.
Little change in strength is forecast for the next few days.

For more detail information, please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at website -
https://www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
and the latest Public Advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website - https://nhc.noaa.gov/#Wanda

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W from 18N southward and
moving W near 5 kt. No significant shower activity is associated
with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough exits the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and extends
westward through a 1008 mb low pressure near 10N26W and another
1011 mb low pressure near 07N31W to 05N34W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is seen near the 1008 mb low from
10N to 13N between 23W and 28W, and near the 1011 mb low from 04N
to 09N between 27W and 32W. Similar conditions are present near
the monsoon trough from 11N to 14N between the Senegal coast and
23W. Scattered moderate convection is found farther N across the
Cabo Verde Islands.

The 1008 mb low is about 300 nm S of the Cabo Verde Islands and
being monitored for potential tropical cyclone formation. It is
expected to move WNW to NW near 10 kt and there is a low chance of
development during the next couple of days. For more information,
please read the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

The E Pacific monsoon trough runs eastward across the Nicaragua-
Guatemala border, then through a 1008 mb low near 13N77W in the
SW Caribbean Sea to 13N74W N of Colombia. Scattered heavy showers
and thunderstorms are occurring near the Nicaragua-Guatemala
border. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident
across the SW Caribbean Sea.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough curves southwestward from the Florida Panhandle
to the N central Gulf. This feature is bringing moderate to
locally fresh WNW to NW winds with seas of 8 to 11 ft across the
N central and NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate NW winds and seas at 5
to 8 ft are found over the S central and SE Gulf. For the W Gulf,
a 1016 mb high is providing light to gentle winds with seas at 2
to 4 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh WNW to NW winds and seas up
to 11 ft east of 90W will diminish and subside overnight into
early Sun. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are then forecast for
the rest of the weekend and continuing through the middle of the
upcoming week. The next cold front may move into the basin by the
end of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends southwestward from E Cuba across the
Cayman Islands to the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 110 nm SE
of this front, including W Jamaica. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the basin.

The latest satellite scatterometer and wave model data shows
moderate to fresh NW winds with seas at 6 to 8 ft behind the
front across the NW Caribbean Basin, including the Yucatan
Channel. E of front, light to gentle NE to ESE trades and seas at
3 to 5 ft prevail across the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the stationary front will transition back to a
cold front later tonight and extend from far E Cuba to the
offshore waters of SE Nicaragua by Sun morning, where the front
will stall again. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of up to 10
ft are expected over the far NW Caribbean through around midnight,
with fresh to locally strong N-NE winds offshore of Nicaragua.
Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient ahead of the front will
support mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin
through the middle of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches south-southwestward from W of Bermuda
across 31N70W and the central Bahamas to E Cuba. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are present near and up to 170
nm SE of this front. Farther E, a stationary front extends
southwestward from W of the Azores across 31N43W to 27N53W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 130 nm SE of this
feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
convection in the basin.

N of 25N, moderate to fresh with locally strong winds and seas at
9 to 11 ft are found near the cold front between 64W and 75W, and
near the stationary front between 34W and 60W. Moderate to locally
fresh winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are evident from the NW Bahamas
to 31N between 75W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Otherwise, the
Atlantic ridge is promoting light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to
7 ft N of 20N between the NW African Coast to the SE
Bahamas/Greater Antilles. Gentle trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are
seen from the Equator to 20N between 33W and the Lesser
Antilles/S American coast. Moderate to fresh with locally strong
NE to ESE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are noted from 09N to 20N
between the Mauritania-Senegal coast and 33W. Light to gentle
monsoonal winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the
basin.

In the forecast, the cold front will move farther E and reach
Bermuda and E Cuba by Sun morning where it will stall again.
Fresh to strong winds are expected on both sides of the front
through tonight, mainly north of 27N. Seas of 8 ft or greater will
continue to fill in across the northern waters, lingering through
Sun before subsiding. The front will weaken as it stretches from
30N65W to the Turks and Caicos Islands Mon morning with gentle to
locally moderate NE flow then prevailing across the SE Bahamas
and the Great Bahama Bank into midweek.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Recently,
there has been an increase in volcanic ash emission, with medium
to high ash concentration spreading up to 30 to 35 nm west of the
volcano. High volcanic ash concentration remains in the vicinity
of the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this
ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$

Chan
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