[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302344
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Oct 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong low pressure system located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland, continues to produce
some shower activity near and to the east of its center while moving
southeastward at around 15 kt. The low appears to be gradually
losing its frontal structure, and the system is likely to transition
to a subtropical storm by early next week while it meanders over the
central subtropical Atlantic.  By the middle of next week, the
system is expected to turn northward and move toward colder waters.
For more information on this system, including gale warnings, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. There
is a medium chance of development for this system within the
next 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook
issued by the National Hurricane center at www.hurricanes.gov and
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather
Service at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W from 18N southward and
moving W at 5 kt. No significant shower activity is associated
with the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough exits the coast of The Gambia near 14N16W to
1008 mb low pressure near 09N24W to a second area low pressure
near 07N31W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 04N to 18N between the coast of Africa and 20W.

The 1008 mb low along the monsoon trough near 09N24W is being
monitored for potential tropical cyclone formation. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted 300 nm in the
NE quadrant and scattered showers 180 nm in the SE quadrant.
The associated shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs
of organization, and environmental conditions could support some
development of this system during the next couple of days as it
moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. The chance of
formation within the next 48 hours is low. By the middle of next
week, upper-level winds are forecast to become increasingly
unfavorable for further development.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Isolated to scattered showers associated with a reinforcing
surface trough are confined to the far eastern Gulf of Mexico,
east of 85W. Otherwise, a 1017 mb surface high pressure is
centered over the SW Gulf near 20N95W. The latest ASCAT pass
shows fresh W to NW winds covering the eastern half of the Gulf
of Mexico, locally strong in the SE Gulf. Light to gentle winds
are in the SW Gulf near the high pressure. Wave heights in the SE
Gulf, including the western Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel,
are likely currently in the 8 to 12 ft range. Elsewhere, seas
are 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the stationary front from central Cuba to the
NE coast of Nicaragua will transition back to a cold front this
evening and extend from eastern Cuba to the offshore waters of SE
Nicaragua by Sun morning where the front will stall again.
Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of up to 10 ft are expected
over the far NW Caribbean through this evening. Moderate to fresh
N to NE winds will continue between the front and adjacent
waters of E Honduras and Nicaragua. Elsewhere, a weak pressure
gradient ahead of the front will support mainly gentle to
moderate trade winds across the basin through the middle of next
week, with locally fresh winds in the Gulf of Venezuela through
early this evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba near 21N78W to
eastern Nicaragua near 12N83W. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh
NW winds covering the NW Caribbean, west of the front. Seas are
5 to 8 ft in this area, except 9 to 12 ft in the Yucatan Channel.
Scattered moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms are along
and about 60 nm se of the front. The eastern end of the eastern
Pacific monsoon trough extends from 12N72W N of Colombia to a
1009 mb low pres near 12N77W, then continues westward to the
coast of Costa Rica/Nicaragua border. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted south of 14N between 65W-
85W. To the east, moderate trades prevail over the eastern and
central Caribbean, except for fresh from 12N-17N between 68W-
75W. Seas are 4-7 ft in the central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the
eastern and SW portions of the basin.

For the forecast, the stationary front will transition back to a
cold front this evening and extend from eastern Cuba to the
offshore waters of SE Nicaragua by Sun morning where the front
will stall again. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of up to 10
ft are expected over the far NW Caribbean through this evening.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue between the front
and adjacent waters of E Honduras and Nicaragua. Elsewhere, a
weak pressure gradient ahead of the front will support mainly
gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin through the
middle of next week, with locally fresh winds in the Gulf of
Venezuela through early this evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 65W: A stationary front extends from 31N71W to the
central Bahamas near 25N76W to central Cuba near 22N78W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong showers and thunderstorms are
firing within 60 nm east of the front. A recent ASCAT pass shows
fresh to strong S-SW winds ahead of the front to 69W with fresh
to strong SW to W winds west of the front, through the NW Bahamas
and Florida Straits as well as east of Florida. Seas are 7 to 11
ft to the north and northeast of the Bahamas and 5 to 7 ft
farther south, closer to Puerto Rico. Further east, the tail end
of a stationary front enters the forecast area near 31N44W to
27N52W. Scattered showers are noted mainly from 25N to 31N between
38W to 44W. Two areas of high pressure are present between this
boundary with a 1019 mb high near 28N23W andto the west a 1015 mb
high near 27N62W. Light to gentle winds are near the high pressure
ridges with a fresh NE trades noted from 12N to 22N and E of 34,
near the coast of Africa.

In the forecast, the cold front will move slowly east and reach
from Bermuda to eastern Cuba Sun morning. Fresh to strong winds
are expected on both sides of the front through tonight, mainly
north of 25N. Seas of 8 ft or greater will continue to prevail
north of 26N east of 78W, as well as in the Florida Straits,
lingering through Sun before decaying. The front will weaken as
it stretches from 30N65W to the Turks and Caicos Islands Mon
morning with gentle to locally moderate NE flow then prevailing
across the southern Bahamas and the Great Bahama Bank into mid-
week.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Recently,
there has been an increase in volcanic ash emission, with medium
to high ash concentration spreading up to 30 to 35 nm west of the
volcano. High volcanic ash concentration remains in the vicinity
of the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this
ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
Torres
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