[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Oct 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2335 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front moving across
the eastern Gulf today is producing minimal gale force winds over
the northern Gulf. Very active convection is along the front,
and is also occurring within 60-120 nm ahead of it in a squall
line, where frequent lightning and strong gusty winds prevail.
Fresh to strong southerly winds will continue ahead of the front
today as it moves into the Gulf coast of Florida. Winds and seas
are expected to peak tonight. At this time, W to NW winds of
30-35 kt and seas in the 10-15 ft range are expected. These
dangerous marine conditions will begin to gradually diminish from
W to E late Fri into Sat. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W from 19N southward moving
W at 10 to 15 kt. The main wave energy appears to be consolidating
further to the east along 27W. Very active convection continues
to the south and east of the wave, where satellite imagery shows
scattered moderate convection from 04N to 08N between 23W and 30W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the Guinea coast near 10N14W and
meanders westward to a 1011 mb low pressure near 09.5N33W to
06N41W. A segment of the ITCZ extends from 03N42W to the coast
of Brazil near 02N50W. Numerous moderate to strong convection
is seen from 04N to 11N between 10W and 24W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front extends from the central Florida Panhandle to
the coast of Mexico near Veracruz, and is racing quickly SE across
the basin this evening. Strong tstorms and squalls are occurring
along and within 120 nm ahead of the front from the Florida coast
near St. Pertersburg west to the Yucatan Channel into the Bay of
Campeche. North of the front, drier conditions prevail. Gale force
W to NW winds and large seas to 16 ft are occurring behind the
front and N of 26N, while strong NW to N winds are elsewhere
behind it. Scatterometer winds also suggest strong SW winds to 30
kt ahead of the front moving into the Florida Big Bend, where
seas of 8-10 ft prevail. Please see the Special Features section
for more details. The front is supported by a large area of low
pressure shifting eastward across the eastern United States,
producing a strong pressure gradient over the northern Gulf. This
will support the strong to gale force winds across the northern
Gulf waters behind the front through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Generally fair and stable atmospheric conditions prevail across
all but the southern Caribbean today. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted along the coastal waters near Port of
Spain in Venezuela and west along the Colombian coast. Morning
scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh trade winds across
the south central Caribbean between 65W and 72W, where peak seas
were to 8 ft. Scatterometer data also showed fresh southerly
winds opening up across the NW Caribbean and flowing through the
Yucatan Channel and into the SE Gulf of Mexico, ahead of the cold
front. Wind and seas are generally more tranquil across the
remainder of the Caribbean today. Active convection across the SW
Caribbean has diminished somewhat this morning.

A weak ridge over the northern Caribbean Sea will continue to
support gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin, with
locally fresh winds possible in the Gulf of Honduras and off the
coast of Venezuela. A cold front will enter the basin through the
Yucatan Channel tonight. This front will move through the NW
Caribbean into the weekend, before stalling from the Windward
Passage to northern Nicaragua by Sun. Moderate to fresh NW winds
and seas to 8 ft can be expected behind the cold front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the discussion area near 31N57W to 27N63W
where it begins to transition to a weakening stationary front
to the northern Bahamas near 24N75W. Active convection continues
along and within 90 nm southeast of both of these boundaries.
Further west, a warm front extends into the western Atlantic
from Georgia to 28N78W. Scattered moderate convection is mainly
west 76W with this feature. Fresh to strong westerly winds are
occurring behind the front, to the N of 29N and E of 70W, while
fresh SW winds prevail southeast of the front and N of 24N to
60W. Seas are 6-11 ft in NW swell behind the front and 6-10 ft
ahead of it. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence
of a 1023 mb high pressure located near 30N27W. This system extends
a ridge SW across the Greater Antilles. Light and variable winds
are along the ridge axis while a belt of gentle to moderate trades
is along the southern periphery of the ridge.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash cloud is
slowly drifting SW. High volcanic ash concentration remains in
the vicinity of the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should
monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash
Advisory issued by Meteo- France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

A cold front from around 31N59W through the central Bahamas will
move east and gradually dissipate into the weekend. The next
cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast tonight, then gradually
reach a Bermuda to Windward Passage line over the weekend, before
stalling. Strong winds and seas in excess of 8 ft are expected
to develop on both sides of the front this evening into Sun,
mainly N of 26N.

$$
Torres
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