[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280609
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Oct 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong to gale winds are expected to
develop across the N Gulf behind a strong cold front, N of 27N
between the Texas coast and the Florida Big Bend area. Winds
across the NW Gulf will reach strong to gale force by Thu
afternoon, then spread eastward to the N central Gulf Thu evening
before reaching the NE Gulf late Thur night. Afterward, winds
should gradually subside below gale force from the NW Gulf to the
NE Gulf on Fri. Seas across the N Gulf will build to 11 to 15 ft
by Thu night, then spread the central Gulf Fri morning before
reaching E central Gulf Fri afternoon. Seas should gradually
subside starting Sat evening. Please, see the latest NWS Offshore
Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for further
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W from 20N southward and moving
W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from
03N to 12N between 30W and 35W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough exits the Senegal coast near 14N17W to 06N39W.
The ITCZ then continues from 06N39W to 09N55W N of Suriname.
Scattered moderate convection is seen S of the monsoon trough from
03N to 09N between 11W and 32W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is evident near the monsoon trough from 11N to
15N between 20W and 30W. No significant convection is found near
the ITCZ based on the latest analysis.

The eastern end of E Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms Panama and N Colombia,
and nearby waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
a Gale Warning across the N Gulf.

A strong cold front curves southwestward from near Lake Charles,
Louisiana across the NW Gulf to near Tampico, N Mexico. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along and up to
70 nm SE of the front. A squall line is ahead of this front,
extending west-southwestward from NE Gulf at 28N87W to the
central Gulf at 24N93W. Scattered to numerous heavy showers and
scattered thunderstorms along with strong to near-gale winds and
seas at 9 to 12 ft are present near this feature N of 26N between
84W and 90W. Mariners should refer to Coastal Waters Forecast
issued by local Weather Forecast Offices along the Gulf, and
Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
for more detail information.

Outside the influence of the squall line, fresh to strong NW to N
winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are seen across the NW and N central
Gulf. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are
evident over the central Gulf. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds
and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the strong cold front will move quickly across
the Gulf, accompanied by a band of showers and thunderstorms, some
strong, through Thu night. Fresh to strong S winds will continue
ahead of the front, with strong to gale force W to NW winds and
building seas developing over the N Gulf in the wake of the front
Thu morning through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is causing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the SW basin from 11N to 13N between 77W and
80W. Convergent trade winds are coupling with an mid-level trough
to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
SE basin, including the Windward Islands. Moderate to fresh trades
and seas at 6 to 8 ft are found over the S central basin, N of
Colombia and Venezuela. Mainly gentle trades and SE trades and
seas of 2 to 4 ft are evident for the NW basin, including the
Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft
prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, a weak ridge over the N Caribbean Sea will
support mainly fresh trades across the S central Caribbean,
including the Gulf of Venezuela through early Thu. Gentle to
moderate SE to S winds will prevail over the NW Caribbean through
Thu night ahead of a cold front forecast to reach W Cuba and the
NW Caribbean. The front will extend from W Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras by midday Fri, and from central Cuba to NE Honduras on
Sat, then stall on Sun from E Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios,
Nicaragua while dissipating.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from NE of Bermuda across 31N62W
to N of the central Bahamas at 27N72W, then continues westward as a
stationary front to across the NW Bahamas to S Florida. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring near and up to
160 nm SE of the cold front. Enhanced by a mid-level trough in the
vicinity, convergent trade winds are generating scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms just E of the Lesser Antilles from 10N
to 19N between 54W and 61W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the
Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong SW to WNW
winds with seas of 8 to 12 ft associated with the cold front are
seen N of 28N between 54W and 74W. Otherwise, light to gentle with
locally moderate winds and seas at 4 to 8 ft are present N of 20N
between the African coast and George-Florida coast. Gentle to
moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the
Atlantic Basin.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. High volcanic
ash concentration remains in the vicinity of the volcano. Marine
and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned cold front will
begin to stall Thu morning, then gradually dissipate through Thu
afternoon. N of 25N and E of 75W, fresh to strong W winds follow
this boundary, along with seas of 8 to 10 ft. The next cold front
from the Gulf of Mexico will sweep eastward across the region Thu
night through Fri night, then stall from 31N68W to E Cuba over the
weekend. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on
either side of this front.

$$

Chan
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