[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260900
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Oct 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 17N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident
well east of the wave axis from 11N to 13N between 20W and 22W.

A Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 81W from 18N
southward and moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 07N to 10N between 77W and 79W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 11N23W. The ITCZ extends from 07N27W to 06N49W. In
addition to the convection described in the Tropical Wave section,
scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the
ITCZ between 32W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Divergence aloft associated with an upper anticyclone is
supporting a persistent cluster of showers and thunderstorms over
the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula currently. A cold front
is moving into the north central Gulf, and currently reaches from
near Fort Walton Beach, Florida to southeast Louisiana. Gentle to
moderate W to NW winds are evident over the northeast Gulf with 3
to 4 ft seas. A weak pressure pattern is in place across the
remainder of the Gulf, supporting light breezes and 1 to 3 ft
seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds will develop
across the NW Gulf tonight into Wed ahead of a cold front expected
to push off the Texas coast on Wed. The front will move across
the Gulf region through Thu night. Fresh to strong winds are
expected ahead and behind the front, with building seas of 12-13
ft in the wake of the front. Frequent gusts to gale force are also
expected over the north-central and NE Gulf Wed night through Fri
before quickly diminishing early Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp upper trough extends from the central Atlantic near 30N49W
through the Leeward Islands to the coast of Colombia. A few
showers are noted in regional radar on the southeast side of this
upper trough, moving quickly westward in the trade wind flow and
mostly staying over the Atlantic, but impacting the Leeward
Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Fresh to strong trade
winds are active over the south-central Caribbean, supporting a
few showers and 5 to 7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds
persist over eastern Caribbean with 4 to 5 ft seas. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicated that the fresh E winds
observed earlier over the Bay Islands and the Gulf of Honduras
have diminished slightly. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in that area.
Moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere,
except for light SE winds and slight seas over the northwest
Caribbean.

For the forecast, weak ridge across the western Atlantic will support fresh
to locally strong trades across the eastern Caribbean and tropical
Atlantic waters E of the Windward Islands through tonight. Winds
are also expected to pulse fresh to strong in the south-central
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela tonight. A cold front
will enter the NW Caribbean Thu night and reach from western Cuba
to the Gulf of Honduras by midday Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deepening, non-tropical low pressure system is located N of
area about 215 nm ENE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The
associated cold front is moving eastward across the waters north
of 28N off northeast Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are active north of 28N and within 360 nm east of the front. An
earlier scatterometer satellite pass from 02 UTC confirmed strong
to near-gale force SW winds within this area. A concurrent radar
altimeter satellite pass showed seas were reaching 8 to 10 ft.
Farther east, a weak ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure near
the Azores Islands westward to 25N65W, disrupted somewhat by a
trough near 50W north of 20N, and a cold front north of the area
over the north central Atlantic. This pattern is supporting
moderate trade winds south of 15N, and light to gentle winds
elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 8 ft over the tropical Atlantic with a
component of N swell, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 5 to 7 ft
east of 35W.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash cloud
slowly drifting SW. Higher concentration over volcano and western
vicinity. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this
ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo- France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, the low pressure off the Carolinas
will move northeast through today and rapidly intensify. An
associated cold front moving eastward across the northern forecast
waters will produce fresh to strong southerly winds and building
seas expected ahead of it. Another cold front will move off NE
Florida coast today, and bring more fresh to strong winds across
the waters N of 27N. Both fronts are forecast to merge by tonight.
The next cold front is expected to sweep across the region Thu
night through Fri night producing another round of fresh to strong
winds north of the Bahamas.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net