[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240538
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Oct 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm on
either side of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm on
either side of the tropical wave, from 13N southward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from the Dominican
Republic southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 420 nm on either side
of the tropical wave. Numerous strong is inland, within 180 nm
to the east of the tropical wave, from 03N to 05N, in Venezuela
and in Colombia.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W, from 21N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 300 nm to the east of the
tropical wave, and elsewhere from 80W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 14N17W, to 10N20W, 07N25W. The ITCZ continues from 07N25W,
to 05N30W, 03N35W and 02N41W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is to the southeast of the line 18N16W
10N32W 07N50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front is along 31N77W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to Florida along 28N/29N, to 28N86W, to SE Louisiana. An
upper level shortwave trough is in the northern half of the
coastal waters of Texas. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 26N northward from 90W
westward.

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 20N94W. A surface trough
extends for 240 nm to the NW of the 1009 mb low pressure center,
and for 90 nm to the southwest of the low pressure center.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm of the center
in the NW semicircle. Gentle to moderate winds are within 180 nm
of the low pressure center in the NW quadrant, and within 220 nm
of the center in the E quadrant.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the
Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers span the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico.

Fresh to strong SE winds are from 25N northward from 90W
westward. Gentle to moderate winds are from 26N southward from
83W eastward. Moderate to fresh winds cover much of the rest of
the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet
from 22N northward between 90W and 95W. The sea heights range
from 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere.

A weakening stationary front across the northeast Gulf of Mexico
will dissipate tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
across the basin through the weekend and become light to gentle
through Tuesday. A strong cold front is expected to move off the
Texas coast on Wednesday and move across the basin through Thu.
Expect fresh to strong winds and rough seas across the northern
and central Gulf later in the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb shows that an anticyclonic circulation
center is near 18N86W. Anticyclonic wind flow covers most of the
Caribbean Sea. A trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near
21N54W, to Barbados, and to 11N66W off the coast of Venezuela.
The GFS model for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, shows that the
Caribbean Sea is on the southern side of an Atlantic
Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea ridge. Expect E to SE wind flow at 500 mb
and at 700 mb.

Two tropical waves are the main features that are in the area.
Most of the precipitation that is in the Caribbean Sea is
related to the tropical waves. Please, refer to the Tropical
Waves section for more details.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from northern Colombia
beyond parts of southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 10N to 14N between 73W and 81W.

Fresh to strong NE-to-E winds are from 14N southward between 71W
and 74W, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and from 14N southward
between 61W and 67W. Gentle to moderate winds are from 18N
northward between the Windward Passage and 86W, and from 13N
southward from 75W westward. Moderate to fresh winds are
elsewhere. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet from 70W
eastward, and from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to locally strong
trades E of the Windward Islands and across the eastern
Caribbean through Mon night. Winds are also expected to pulse
fresh to strong in the Venezuela basin tonight through Mon
evening. By Tue through Thu, gentle to moderate tradewinds are
expect to prevail across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The southernmost point of a cold front is 31N77W. A surface
trough is along 32N67W 29N68W 27N71W. Fresh to strong SE winds
within 300 nm to the ESE of the surface trough, from 26N
northward. A second surface trough is along 29N76W, across the
Bahamas, to the coast of Cuba near 22N between 79W and 80W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
to the northwest of the line that passes through 31N50W to the
Windward Passage.

The GFS model for 250 mb shows that a trough is along 21N54W, to
Barbados, and to 11N66W off the coast of Venezuela. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 20N northward between 34W and 54W.

An upper level trough is along 31N19W 22N27W 17N37W. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate from the Canary Islands
northward and eastward.

A 1032 mb high pressure center is near 38N39W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 60W eastward.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from 07N to 14N between 45W and
61W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere to the northwest of the
line 27N50W 20N66W. Moderate to fresh winds cover the remainder
of  the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8
feet from 61W eastward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5
feet elsewhere.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

A trough, extending across the northern Bahamas and off the
southeast Florida coast, will support convection across the
region through tonight. Meanwhile, a weak stationary front
across northern Florida and adjacent Atlantic waters will slowly
meander southward toward South Florida and dissipate Sun. Expect
showers and thunderstorms along this boundary through early next
week. Moderate to locally fresh winds will develop off the
Florida coast on Sun into Mon near the old boundary.

$$
mt/torres
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