[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220524
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Oct 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered strong is within 90 nm on either side of the tropical
wave from 06N to 09N. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 03N to 10N between 44W and 53W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 08N to 13N between
53W and 62W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm to the west
of the tropical wave from 16N to the Dominican Republic.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 16N to the
southern sections of the SW corner of the Dominican Republic and
all of Haiti. Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 120 nm on
either side of the tropical wave from 14N to 21N. Isolated
moderate is in the Atlantic Ocean from 21N to 27N between 70W
and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 11N15W, to 10N17W 07N20W 06N23W 03N26W. The ITCZ continues
from 03N26W, to 02N30W 01N36W 03N39W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 02N to 10N from 38W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 31N75W,
through northern Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico,
toward NE Mexico/the deep south of Texas.

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows an inverted trough
that extends from the east central Gulf of Mexico, to the
Yucatan Peninsula, and to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
and to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in
clusters covers the area from Guatemala to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere to the south of the line that
runs from the Florida west coast at 27N, to 25N90W, to the coast
of Mexico near 23N, and from 26N northward from 93W eastward.

Moderate to fresh winds are in the SE Gulf and the Straits of
Florida. Mainly gentle to moderate winds cover the rest of the
Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights are in the range of 3 feet to 5
feet from 92W eastward, and in the range of 1 foot to 3 feet
elsewhere. The comparatively highest sea heights range from 4
feet to 6 feet, in the Straits of Florida.

Weak high pressure will dominate into early next week. A
stalling cold front will skirt across the NE Gulf this weekend.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected in the central and
eastern Gulf through the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean
Sea from 70W westward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm to the west
of the tropical wave from 16N to the Dominican Republic.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 16N to the
southern sections of the SW corner of the Dominican Republic and
all of Haiti. Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 120 nm on
either side of the tropical wave from 14N to 21N. Isolated
moderate is in the Atlantic Ocean from 21N to 27N between 70W
and 80W.

Fresh to strong winds are to the east of the Lesser Antilles.
The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet. Gentle to moderate
trade winds are generally in the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights
range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 18N southward from 80W
eastward, from 3 feet to 4 feet in the Yucatan Channel, and from
1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere.

High pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to
locally strong trade winds E of the Windward Islands through the
weekend, becoming moderate in the central Caribbean Sea early
next week. During this period: moderate to fresh winds are
expected in the south central Caribbean Sea, with winds reaching
locally strong in the Venezuela basin. Gentle to moderate trade
winds will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N54W, to 34N64W, through 31N73W, to 30N80W. Broad
surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the
25N61W 23N71W surface trough, northward, from 50W westward. Broad
surface anticyclonic wind flow also is from 30N northward between
20W and 40W.

A surface trough is along 25N61W 24N66W 23N71W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 23N to 27N
between 58W and 69W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N to
30N between 50W and 70W.

Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are N of the 25N61W-to-23N71W
surface trough, particularly between 60W and 70W, with sea
heights ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet. Moderate to fresh NE
to E trade winds are to the north of the ITCZ. The sea heights
range from 4 feet to 6 feet, generally. The exception is the
range from 6 feet to 9 feet, to the west of the Canary Islands,
in NW swell.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-
France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

High pressure will move to the east of the area tonight. A weak
cold front will move off the coast of the SE U.S.A. on Friday
night, and then stall in the northwestern parts of the area,
through the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds tonight will
subside by Friday, as the high pressure moves away from the area.

$$
MT/TORRES
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