[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Oct 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W south of 13N, moving
westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
04N to 10N between 35W and 44W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W south of 18N, moving
westward 10-15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are east of
the wave axis south of 14N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 71W south of 20N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
16N to 18N between 70W and 73W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa from 14N17W to
07N25W. The ITCZ continues from 07N25W to 02N37W. It resumes at
02N39W to 01S44W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical
waves section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from
00N to 11N between 30W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends over the far SW Gulf. High pressure
prevails over the northern Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
over the SE Gulf, gentle to moderate winds over the SW Gulf, and
light to gentle winds over the Gulf waters north of 25N.

For the forecast, ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the
forecast period. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected
across the SE Gulf today. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean waters.
Moderate to fresh winds are over the eastern Caribbean and gentle
to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will support fresh
to locally strong trades E of the Windward Islands into Sun night.
During this period, moderate to fresh winds are expected over the
south- central Caribbean, with winds reaching locally strong in
the Venezuela basin. Gentle to moderate tradewinds will prevail
elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1023 mb centered near 32N71W is presently
controlling weather regime over the western part of the area. This
is supporting moderate to fresh winds south of 25N and west of
60W, and light to gentle winds north of 25N. Seas over this area
are in the 5-7 ft range south of 25N and west of 60W, and 3-5 ft
north of 25N and west of 60W. Farther east, a cold front enters
the forecast waters near 31N47W to 28N59W and then becomes
stationary to near 24N62W. Scattered moderate convection is within
90 nm of the front. East of the front, 1023 mb high pressure is
centered near 27N43W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the
remainder of the tropical and subtropical waters north of 20N and
east of 60W. Seas over this area are mainly in the 5-7 ft range.
Over the tropical waters south of 20N, fresh to strong winds
prevail west of 45W, with moderate to fresh winds east of 45W.
Seas are in the 5-8 ft range.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash
emission is on-going. Moderate to high volcanic ash is expected
in the vicinity of the volcano. Elsewhere, light volcanic ash
concentration is drifting south. Marine and aviation interests
should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash
Advisory issued by Meteo-France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes
/la- palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will shift eastward
across the W Atlantic along 31N- 32N through early Fri, producing
moderate to fresh winds south of 25N. Surface troughing will then
prevail over the area through early next week.

$$
AL
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