[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200918
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Oct 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 34W from 02N to 14N, moving
westward around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 30W and 40W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 56W south of 19N, moving
westward around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 09N to 12N between 54W and 58W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 65W south of 19N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 120 nm east of the wave axis south of 14N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa from
12N16W to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 04N33W. It
resumes from 03N36W to 02N50W. Aside from convection noted in the
tropical waves section above, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 20W and 30W,
and from 04N to 07N between 40W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the northwest Gulf of Mexico near
28N95W to the Bay of Campeche, with high pressure prevailing over
the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the eastern
Gulf, gentle to moderate winds are over the SW Gulf, and light to
gentle winds are over the NW Gulf. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range
over the Gulf waters east of 90W, and 1-3 ft west of 90W.

For the forecast, A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the
forecast period. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected
over the north-central, and NE Gulf today, and across the SE Gulf
through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure pattern exists across the Caribbean waters.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted over the central and eastern
Caribbean south of 14N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the south central
Caribbean as well as the NW Caribbean. Seas in the 2-4 ft range
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure building N of the area will bring
fresh to locally strong trades E of the Windward Islands through
Sun. During this period, moderate to fresh winds are expected over
the south-central Caribbean, with winds reaching locally strong
in the Venezuela basin. Gentle to moderate tradewinds will prevail
elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N52W to 26N61W, where it becomes
stationary to 24N71W. High pressure is building in the wake of the
front, centered near 32N79W. A surface trough extends from 30N44W
to 24N55W. Moderate to fresh winds are over the tropical waters
south of 20N, where seas are in the 4-7 ft range. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds prevail over the tropical and subtropical waters
north of 12N, where seas are in the 4-6 ft range.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash
emission is on-going. Moderate to high volcanic ash is expected
in the vicinity of the volcano. It is light elsewhere. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la- palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will gradually
dissipate through Thu. High pressure building in the wake of the
front will shift eastward across the W Atlantic along 31N-32N
through Thu, producing moderate to fresh winds immediately north
of the front.

$$
AL
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