[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182321
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Oct 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 27W from 01N to 14N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 04N to 07N between 26W and 28W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 45W/46W from 02N to 16N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 07N to 10N between 43W-48W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W south of 16N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this
time with this wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W south of 17N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
13N to 15N between 81W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 17N16W
to 07N24W. The ITCZ continues from 06N30W to 06N43W, then resumes
near 06N47W to 05N53W. In addition to the convection mentioned
above in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate
convection is observed within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W
and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front reaches from the Straits of Florida to 22N90W
to 18.5N93W. Latest scatterometer data showed fresh E winds in the
Straits of Florida north of the front, and moderate to fresh N
winds over the southwest Gulf, although this is diminishing
rapidly. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the southwest Gulf with residual N
swell, 4 to 6 ft in the Straits of Florida, and 3 to 5 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front will dissipate through Wed. Winds and
seas will subside quickly off of Veracruz, Mexico through
midnight. Winds across the Gulf will gradually veer to the east
Tue as high pressure to the north slides eastward. Weak high
pressure will dominate the Gulf for the remainder of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Caribbean waters.
Moderate to fresh E winds are noted off Venezuela, and along the
ABC islands. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail
elsewhere across much of the Caribbean waters.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient and tranquil marine
conditions will persist across the Caribbean basin through
tonight. A cold front across the NW Atlc will move SE through Wed
before stalling from near 25N65W to the Straits of Florida. High
pressure building N of the front will bring a return to moderate
trade winds to the Caribbean early Tue and then become moderate to
fresh winds Wed through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A cold front extends across the Atlantic waters from near 31N62W
to the central Bahamas where it becomes a stationary front into
the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are
noted behind the front, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Moderate to fresh SW
winds with 4 to 5 ft are noted east of the front to 50W, north of
28N. Gentle winds persist elsewhere west of 50W, with 3 to 5 ft
seas. Farther east, another front reaches from 31N27W to 27N32W
then is stationary to 25N43W after which a trough extends to near
20N50W. A radar altimeter satellite pass showed evidence of seas
to 8 ft following this front east of 30W, likely in NW swell. Weak
high pressure dominates elsewhere supporting moderate to fresh
trades south of 20N with 4 to 6 ft seas, and gentle to moderate
winds north of 20N with 5 to 7 ft seas in NW swell.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Light to
moderate volcanic ash is expected in the area east of the
volcano, while high ash concentrations are close to the volcano.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-
France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front over the western
Atlantic will continue moving slowly southeastward before becoming
stationary from near 25N65W to the Straits of Florida, then
dissipating Thu night. High pres will shift ESE across the western
Atlc along 31N-32N through Thu, producing strong winds immediately
north of the front.

$$
Christensen
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