[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180913
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Oct 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 23W/24W from 02N to 17N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 08N to 10N between 20W and 26W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 43W/44W from 02N to 19N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 12N between 40W and 46W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 57W south of 20N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
12N to 20N between 55W and 60W, mainly associated with a sharp
upper- level trough north of the tropical wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 78W south of 20N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from
11N to 17N between 75W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 12N17W to
07N25W. The ITCZ continues from 07N25W to 05N33W to 08N42W. It
resumes from 08N45W to 06N50W. In addition to the convection
mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate
convection is observed from 02N to 08N between 30W and 40W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to
10N between 46W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from SW Florida to 22N99W then becomes
stationary to the Bay of Campeche. Winds off Veracruz have
diminished below gale force, with fresh to strong winds now
prevailing. Seas over this area are in the 8-11 ft range.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Gulf
waters. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will continue
moving SE today. Winds off of Veracruz, Mexico are expected to
further diminish today. Winds across the Gulf will gradually veer
to the E late today through Tue as the front becomes aligned from
just offshore of the N Yucatan Peninsula through the Straits of
Florida and dissipates.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Caribbean waters.
Light to gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail across much of
the Caribbean waters.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean
basin will continue to lead to tranquil marine conditions today.
A cold front across the NW Atlc will move SE through early Wed
before stalling from near 25N65W to the Straits of Florida. High
pressure building in the wake of the front will bring a return to
moderate trade winds to the Caribbean tonight through Tue and then
moderate to fresh winds late Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the Atlantic waters from near 31N70W
to South Florida. Fresh to locally strong north to northeast
winds are noted behind the front. Seas with these winds are in
the 6-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds prevail within 420 nm
east of the front. Farther east, a cold front extends from near
31N30W to 25N40W, then becomes stationary to 23N46W and
transitions to a trough to near 20N56W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed within 120 nm SE of the fronts. Elsewhere
over the tropical and subtropical waters north of 20N, light to
gentle winds prevail. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range north of 26N
and between 27W and 40W, and 3-6 ft elsewhere over the open waters
north of 20N. Over the tropical waters south of 20N, gentle to
moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Light to
moderate volcanic ash is expected in the area east of the
volcano, while high ash concentrations are close to the volcano.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-
France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes /la-palma/

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front extending from
31N70W to SE Florida will reach from near Bermuda to the Straits
of Florida this morning. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds
behind the front through this morning. High pres will shift ESE
across the W Atlc along 31N-32N Tue through Wed while the front
stalls from near 25N65W to the Straits of Florida.

$$
AL
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