[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Oct 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from central
Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Gale-force winds are noted over
the waters off Veracruz, Mexico. Seas are peaking near 16 ft
prevail over this area. The gale-force winds are forecast to
continue through the day. Winds and seas will decrease this
evening, with winds diminishing below gale force. Marine
conditions will continue to improve through early this week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on both warnings.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 18W south of 17N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of
06N between 14W to 21W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W south of 20N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to
12N between 36W and 42W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 54W south of 20N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted north of 15N between 50W
to 57W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 74W south of 20N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N
between 72W and 76W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W south of 17N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm of
the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N16W to
06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to 07N36W. It resumes
from 07N43W to 05N51W. Aside from convection mentioned in the
Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted
from 01N to 13N and between 20W and 37W, and from 05N to 08N
between 43W to 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features for information on the Gale Warning
off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico over the SW Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche.
Aside from the gale-force winds off the coast of Veracruz,
Mexico, fresh to strong winds prevail west of the front. Seas
west of the front are in the 8-11 ft range south of 25N, and 5-8
ft elsewhere west of the front. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is concentrated south of 23N between 90W-96W in
the Bay of Campeche. East of the front, gentle to moderate winds,
and seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, Gale-force N winds off of Veracruz, Mexico are
expected to continue through sunset today. Winds will gradually
veer to the E late Mon through Tue as the front becomes aligned
from just offshore of the N Yucatan Peninsula through the Straits
of Florida and dissipates.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Wave Section for more information.

A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Caribbean waters.
Scattered showers are noted in the western Caribbean and along
the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Gentle to moderate winds,
and seas of 2-4 ft, are noted over the central and eastern
Caribbean waters south of 14N. Light to gentle winds, and seas of
1-3 ft prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean
basin will lead to tranquil marine conditions through early Mon.
A cold front has entered the NW Atlc overnight and will move SE
through early Wed before stalling from near 25N65W to the Straits
of Florida. High pressure building in the wake of the front will
bring a return to moderate trade winds to the Caribbean Mon night
through Tue and then moderate to fresh winds late Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the Atlantic waters from 31N74W to
central Florida. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are
noted west of the front with isolated showers along the boundary.
Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N37W to 23N48W, with a
trough continuing to north of Hispaniola, near 21N68W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within 180 nm east of the front
and north of 19N. A surface trough is noted behind the front from
31N40W to 29N47W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-11 ft are
also noted east and southeast of the front. Over the tropical
waters south of 20N, moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft,
prevail. N of 20N and east of 50W, gentle to moderate winds and
seas of 5-8 ft prevail. Elsewhere over the tropical and
subtropical waters north of 20N and west of 50W, light to gentle
winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, prevail.

Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Low ash
concentrations is moving NW. Marine and aviation interests
should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic
Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes /la-palma/

For the forecast west of 65W, a weak pressure pattern prevails
across the W Atlc to the SW of Bermuda. A cold front across the
NW waters to central Florida will continue moving southeastward
across most of FL tonight, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits
of Florida by Mon morning. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds
behind the front through Mon morning. High pres will shift ESE
across the W Atlc along 31N-32N Tue through Wed while the front
stalls from near 25N65W to the Straits of Florida.

$$
Torres
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