[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170840
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Oct 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from central
Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Gale- force winds are noted over
the waters off Veracruz, Mexico. Seas are peaking near 12 ft
prevail over this area. The gale- force winds are forecast to
continue through the day, with seas building to near 15 ft. Winds
and seas will decrease this evening, with winds diminishing below
gale force. Marine conditions will continue to improve through
early this week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on both warnings.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 16/17W south of 15N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N
to 05N between 15W and 20W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W south of 20N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to
10N between 36W and 41W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W south of 20N, moving W at
10-15 kt. No deep convection is observed with this tropical wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 73W south of 20N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 14N
between 71W and 77W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W south of 17N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm of
the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 12N16W to
08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W to 05N25W to 07N39W. It
resumes from 07N41W to 05N51W. Aside from convection mentioned in
the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 01N to 08N and between 20W and 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features for information on the Gale Warning
off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico over the SW Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche.
Aside from the gale- force winds off the coast of Veracruz,
Mexico, fresh to strong winds prevail west of the front. Seas west
of the front are in the 8-11 ft range south of 25N, and 5-8 ft
elsewhere west of the front. East of the front, gentle to moderate
winds, and seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, Gale- force N winds off of Veracruz, Mexico,
and are expected to continue through today. Winds will gradually
veer to the E Mon through Tue as the front becomes aligned W to E
along 23N and dissipates.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Caribbean waters.
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, are noted over the
central and eastern Caribbean waters south of 14N. Light to gentle
winds, and seas of 1-3 ft prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean
basin will maintain tranquil marine conditions through early Mon.
A cold front will enter the NW Atlc over the weekend and move SE.
High pressure building in the wake of the front will bring a
return to moderate trade winds to the Caribbean Mon night through
Tue and then moderate to fresh winds late Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the NW discussion waters from 31N77W
to central Florida. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 4-6 ft,
are noted west of the front. Farther east, a cold front extends
from 31N37W to 25N49W, with a trough continuing to north of Puerto
Rico. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed
within 150 nm east of the front. Fresh to strong winds, and seas
of 8-11 ft are also noted east of the front. Over the tropical
waters south of 20N, moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft,
prevail. N of 20N and east of 50W, gentle to moderate winds and
seas of 5-8 ft prevail. Elsewhere over the tropical and
subtropical waters north of 20N and west of 50W, light to gentle
winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, prevail.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Low ash concentrations moving NW. Marine and aviation interests
should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic
Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/

For the forecast west of 65W, a weak pressure pattern prevails
across the W Atlc to the SW of Bermuda. A cold front off the SE
U.S. coast will continue southeastward across all of Florida by
tonight, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Mon
morning. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds behind the front
through Mon morning. High pres will shift ESE across the W Atlc
along 31N-32N Tue through Wed.

$$
AL
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