[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Oct 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: An elongated area of low pressure is located
near 26.5N57W or about more than 700 nm southeast of Bermuda. A
surface trough extends from the low to 24N60W to 21N70W. Recent
satellite derived wind data show minimal gale force winds within
about 60 nm just south of the low center. A large area of fresh to
locally strong winds is also noted over the central Atlantic SE
of the trough axis, roughly N of 22N between 48W and 62W. The
associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized,
with clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection covering
the waters from 22N to 28N E of the trough to 51W. This system is
beginning to merge with a larger mid-latitude trough. Strong
upper-level winds are expected to prevent additional tropical
development of this system as it accelerates to the east-northeast
over the next several days. Seas of 9 to 12 are expected within
the area of gales. The low is forecast to move N of the forecast
region late tonight into Sat morning.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf
tonight with fresh to strong northerly winds following it. The
front will reach south central Florida to western Bay of Campeche
Sun morning with moderate to fresh N to NE winds across most of
the Gulf. Gale-force N winds will briefly move across the Mexican
waters Sat afternoon through evening and are then expected to
develop off of Veracruz early Sun through afternoon. Seas are
forecast to build to 8-10 ft with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 27W/28W south of 18N, moving
W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N
and 10N between 25W and 30W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 43W south of 18N, moving W at
around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is seen from 03N and 10N between 40W and 48W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W/64W south of 17N, moving
W at around 10 to 15 kt. No deep convection is observed near the
wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 76W/77W south of 19N, moving
W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed over
the central Caribbean on either side of the wave axis and mainly
from 13N to 16N between 72W and 80W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W/89W south of 19N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. The wave extends southward into the E Pacific region.
Scattered showers are near the northern end of the wave axis over
the Yucatan peninsula.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W
to 08N16W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 06N30W to
05N40W to the coast of French Guiana at 05.5N53W. Aside from
convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N
between 30W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the Gulf waters anchored by a 1016 mb high
pressure located over northern Georgia. A surface trough remains
over the NE Gulf. A few clouds with likely isolated showers are
observed over the Gulf waters. Light to gentle winds prevails
across the Gulf waters based on scatterometer data. Seas are in
the 3-4 ft range over the NW Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight
with fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas following
it. Please, see the Special Features section for more details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A couple of tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean
Sea. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for details. A weak
pressure pattern prevails across the basin due to the presence of
lows/troughs N of the Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate winds are
noted over eastern Caribbean mainly south of 14N. Light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the
eastern Caribbean and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, an upper level trough extending from the Bahamas
to the NW Caribbean will support active weather across the central
Caribbean and extreme NE Caribbean today. A weak pressure gradient
across the Caribbean basin will lead to tranquil marine conditions.
A cold front will enter the SW N Atlantic over the weekend and
move SE, and bring a return to moderate trade winds to the Caribbean
Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the Gale Warning over the Atlantic waters associated with a low
center.

Aside from the low pressure system mentioned in the Special Features
section, a weakening stationary front extends from 31N30W to 29N40W
to 31N50W to a 1007 mb low pressure located N of area near just W
of Bermuda near 32N66W. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh
to locally strong S to SW winds south of the front between 46W
and 51W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under
the influence of a ridge with a 1022 mb high pressure located N of
the Madeira Islands. A pair of tropical waves are between the W
coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please, see the Tropical
Waves section for details.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Low ash concentrations moving NW. Marine and aviation interests
should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash
Advisory issued by Meteo- France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes
/la-palma/

For the forecast W of 65W, low pres 1004 mb near 26.5N57W will
accelerate NE and exit the region late tonight into early Sat
morning. Active weather associated with this system will persist
across the SE waters through this evening. A cold front will move
southeastward off the SE U.S. coast and across Florida by the end
of the weekend, reaching from Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Mon
morning. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds behind the front
through Mon morning.

$$
GR
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