[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110612
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Oct 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W from 16N southward and
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 10N to 14N between 51W and 55W. While
environmental conditions are not supportive for significant
development, This wave can still bring locally heavy rain and
gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Mon night and Tue, then to the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wed.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W from Puerto Rico
southward to N Venezuela, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are present over Puerto Rico
and nearby waters. Earlier heavy showers caused by this wave have
produced just over 2 inches of rain at Guadeloupe in the Leeward
Islands.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from S of W Cuba
southward to near the Guatemala-Panama border, and moving W at
15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted over S Cuba, Guatemala, Panama and adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends through the coast of Senegal near Dakar
to S of the Cabo Verde Islands at 13N22W. Farther SW, the ITCZ
stretches from 06N26W to 06N47W. Scattered moderate convection is
found S of the monsoon trough from 03N to 07N between the Sierra
Leone/Liberia coast and 21W, and also near the ITCZ from 05N to
11N between 31W and 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extending southwestward from the Florida Panhandle
to S Mexico is supporting pleasant conditions for the entire Gulf.
Light to gentle NE to E winds with seas at 2 to 3 ft across the E
and central Gulf. Moderate to fresh ESE to SE winds and seas of 4
to 6 ft prevail over the W Gulf, including the W Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain over the Gulf for
the next few days. Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail into
mid week over the western Gulf between the ridge and lower
pressure over the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Gentle to
moderate breezes will persist elsewhere through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent winds N of the Colombia low is generating scattered
heavy showers and thunderstorms over N colombia and Venezuela, and
S central basin. Convergent trades are coupling with divergent
flow aloft to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the Lesser Antilles, and nearby E Caribbean and Atlantic
waters. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional
weather in the basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh
trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident across the E and central
basin. Light to gentle trades and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for
the W basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and a few thunderstorms
persist over the northeast Caribbean, in association with a
tropical wave currently located along 66W, and an upper-level
trough north of Puerto Rico. Winds and seas will diminish near
the wave as it moves into the central Caribbean through mid week,
and into the W Caribbean Thu and Fri. Another tropical wave
currently along 52W is forecast to approach the central and
N Lesser Antilles by late Mon and early Tues. This system could
produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of
the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and across
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough reaches southwestward from a low pressure off
N Carolinas across the NW Bahamas to NW Cuba. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are found across N Cuba, central and SE
Bahamas, including the Great Bahama Bank. Farther SE, convergent
SE trades are coupling with an upper-level low NE of the Leeward
Islands near 25N61W to produce scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms 18N to 25N between 54W and 62W. A cold front curves
southwestward from near the Azores across 31N41W to 30N56W.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are occurring N of 29N
between 40W and 55W. A pre- frontal trough SE of this front near
29N37W is causing scattered moderate convection N of 26N between
31W and 41W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
sections for additional convection in the basin.

Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are found near the
cold front, N of 28N between 40W and 63W. Otherwise, light to
gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist N of 20N between 25W and
Florida-Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE
trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present near the Canary Islands,
N of 22N between the NW African coast and 25W. NE to ENE gentle to
moderate with locally fresh trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft are seen
from 10N to 22N between 33W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to
gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the
basin.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, that is on the island of La Palma in
the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Currently, volcanic ash is seen over the vicinity of the volcano.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this on-going
situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory, that is issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast W of 65W, scattered thunderstorms are active
mainly W of 70W, ahead of the trough extending from N Carolina.
The trough and associated weather will move little through Mon,
then drift E and weaken through midweek. Farther S, a tropical
wave moving through the E Caribbean will bring fresh to strong
winds and occasionally rough seas S of 22N through late Mon, then
will diminish. Elsewhere, generally moderate winds and seas will
persist through Fri.

$$

Chan
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