[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102131
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Oct 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an active tropical wave is near 51W south of 16N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 07N to 13N between 50W and 55W. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some
additional development of this system while it moves west-
northwestward at about 15 mph over the next few days. The
disturbance is expected to approach the central and northern
Lesser Antilles by late Monday and early Tuesday, and interests
in these areas should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, the system will produce locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the central and
northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and across the Virgin
Islands and northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 65W south of 19N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 13N to 18N between 57W and 65W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W, moving W at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted over the SW Caribbean, S
of 13N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 08N13W
to 09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to 06N35W to 08N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 30W and
42W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to
15N between 42W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh
winds are over the far NW Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere W of 90W. East of 90W, light to gentle winds prevail.
Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the far NW Gulf, and 1-3 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevails across the Gulf.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail into mid week over
the western Gulf between the ridge and lower pressure over the
Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Gentle to moderate breezes
will persist elsewhere through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are noted over the far NE Caribbean with a
locally tight pressure gradient between a tropical wave in the
eastern Caribbean, and high pressure NE of the Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds are over the central Caribbean. Light to
gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range over
the far NE Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere over the eastern and
central Caribbean. Over the western Caribbean, seas are in the
1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and a few thunderstorms
persist over the northeast Caribbean, associated with tropical
wave move through the eastern Caribbean and an upper trough north
of Puerto Rico. Winds and seas will diminish near the wave as it
moves into the central Caribbean through mid week, and into the
western Caribbean Thu and Fri. Another tropical wave currently
currently passing 50W will enter the eastern Caribbean Tue and
the central Caribbean Thu and Fri. Expect rough seas in Atlantic
waters east of the Leeward Islands into mid week behind the
tropical wave as northerly swell reaches the area. Mostly gentle
to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist
elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough extends from low pressure off the Carolinas to the
eastern Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection are noted within 450 nm east of the trough. A
second trough extends from 30N34W to 25N49W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the vicinity of the trough. A cold front
has entered the far northern portion of the discussion area
extending from 31N41W to 29N48W to 31N57W. Moderate to fresh
winds are noted south of 22N between 40W and 70W, while light to
gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range
south of 21N, and 3-5 ft over the open waters north of 21N. West
of the Bahamas, seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, that is on the island of La Palma in
the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Currently, volcanic ash is seen over the vicinity of the volcano.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this on-going
situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory, that is issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast W of 65W, a trough reaches from low pressure
off the Carolinas to the eastern Straits of Florida. Scattered
thunderstorms are active mainly west of 70W, ahead of the trough.
The trough and associated weather will move little through Mon,
then drift east and weaken through mid week. Farther south, a
tropical wave moving through the eastern Caribbean will bring
fresh to strong winds and occasionally rough seas south of 22N
through late Mon, then will diminish. Elsewhere, generally
moderate winds and seas will persist through Fri.

$$
AL
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