[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Oct 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 16N with axis near 51W, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Numeorous moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 07N to 15N between 46W and 54W. Recent satellite-derived
surface wind data show fresh to near gale force winds associated
with this wave located about 430 nmi ESE of the Windward Islands.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive
for some additional development of this system while it moves WNW
over the next few days. The disturbance is expected to approach
the central and northern Lesser Antilles by late Monday and early
Tuesday. Regardless of development, the system will produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the
central and northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and across the
Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean S of 19N with axis near
64W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is from 14N to 18N between 58W and 64W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 18N to 22N between 57W and
63W. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to near gale force
winds E of the wave axis affecting the Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean S of 19N with axis near
78W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and fresh to locally
strong winds are in the SW Caribbean, S of 13N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 08N13W
to 08N16W. The ITCZ begins near 08N23W and continues along 06N36W
to 08N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N
between 08W and 18W, and from 04N to 10N between 30W and 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient is across the eastern half of the gulf
with light to gentle variable winds and seas of 1-2 ft. Over the
western half of the basin, low pressure building over Texas and
northern Mexico, extending over the waters W of 90W continue to
support moderate to fresh SE winds W of 93W. Earlier scatterometer
data showed fresh to locally strong SE winds over Texas adjacent
waters where the pressure gradient tightens between the low center
over Texas and high pressure over the SE CONUS.

Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail over the western Gulf
between the ridge and lower pressure over the Southern Plains and
northern Mexico. Gentle to moderate breezes are expected to persist
elsewhere. Little change is expected through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin, one over the W
Caribbean and another one just W of the Lesser Antilles. The
wave over the E basin is supporting heavy showers and windy
conditions over the Leeward Islands. An upper trough north of
Puerto Rico support isolated showers across the Island and
adjacent waters. Winds and seas will diminish near the wave as it
move into the central Caribbean through mid week, and into the
western Caribbean by Thu. Mostly gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere through mid week.
Otherwise, another tropical wave will approach the Lesser
Antilles late on Mon. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for
more details.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough reaches from low pressure off the Carolinas to the
eastern Straits of Florida. Scattered thunderstorms are active
mainly west of 70W, ahead of the trough, with numerous
thunderstorms over the northern Bahamas. The trough and associated
weather will move little through Mon, then drift east and weaken
through mid week. Farther south, a tropical wave moving through
the eastern Caribbean will bring fresh to strong winds and
occasionally rough seas south of 22N through late Mon. Elsewhere,
generally moderate winds and seas will persist through mid week.

Otherwise, a cold front starts to dip into the north central Atlc
waters extending from 31N43W to 31N56W. Ahead of the front, a
trough extends from 31N35W to 27N42W. Scattered showers are
associated with these features.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, that is on the island of La Palma in
the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Currently, volcanic ash is seen over the vicinity of the volcano.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this on-going
situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory, that is issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net