[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Oct 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Satellite-derived wind data and surface observations continue to
indicate a large, non-tropical low pressure system located about
100 miles SE of Morehead City, North Carolina. This system is
producing a broad area of gale-force winds to the NW, N and NE of
the center with seas peaking at 10 to 15 ft, including the N
Carolina coast. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity has
been concentrating to the N and NE of the center. This system
could still become a short- lived subtropical storm through
Sunday, but environmental conditions should become unfavorable for
any further development on Monday. Regardless of development,
intermittent periods of locally heavy rains and gusty winds will
affect SE and E portions of N Carolina during the next day or two.
Therefore, interests along the N Carolina coast should monitor
the progress of this system. There is still a medium chance of
development for this low over the next 48 hours. For more details,
please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
https://www.hurricanes.gov and Mariners can read the latest High
Seas Forecast from the Ocean Prediction Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W from 18N southwestward and
moving W near 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 07N to 15N and between 42W and 52W.

Another tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles near 61W from
19N southward to near the Venezuela-Guyana border, and moving W
near 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted from 12N to 19N between 57W and 62W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is between Jamaica and Haiti along 75W
from 19N southward to N Colombia, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered to numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms are
occurring over E Cuba and near the border of N Colombia and
Venezuela. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
near Jamaica and Haiti.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough turns southwestward at the coast of Mauritania
near 17N16W to near 08N24W. The ITCZ then continues from 08N24W
to 11N46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
flaring up near the ITCZ from 06N to 11N between 31W and 42W.
There is no significant convection near the monsoon trough based
on this analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1015 mb high over
Louisiana/Mississippi to the Bay of Campeche. This feature is
dominating most of the Gulf with light to gentle winds and seas
of 2 to 4 ft. For the Florida Straits and W Cuba, the SW end of a
surface trough extending from the low pressure mentioned in the
Special Features section is triggering scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate winds and seas up to 5 ft are
possible near these showers and thunderstorms.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough will continue
to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms near the Florida
Straits for the next couple of days. The remainder of the Gulf is
under the influence of a ridge forecast to dominate the Gulf
region during the next several days. Moderate to locally fresh
return flow will prevail across the W Gulf through the middle of
next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Other than the showers and thunderstorms mentioned in the Gulf of
Mexico and Tropical Waves sections above, gentle to moderate with
locally fresh trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft dominate the E and
central basin. Light to gentle trades and seas at 2 to 4 ft
prevail for the W basin.

For the forecast, a tropical wave with axis along 60W/61W will
affect the Lesser Antilles tonight, reaching the US/UK Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico late on Sun, and Hispaniola on Mon.
Increasing shower and thunderstorm activity, gusty winds and
moderate to rough seas are expected with the wave passage.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail, except
light to gentle winds in the NW Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends southwestward from the low pressure
mentioned in the Special Features section across the NW Bahamas
to the N coast of Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
present from the Great Bahama Bank northward across the Bahamas to
off the N Florida-Georgia coast. Farther E, a weak but persistent
surface trough near 27N62W is triggering scattered moderate
convection SW and S of Bermuda, N of 24N between 59W and 71W.
Convergent surface winds to the SE of a cold front near 33N46W are
causing scattered moderate convection in the central Atlantic N
of 27N between 36W and 44W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

Near the axis of the Atlantic ridge, light to gentle winds with
seas of 4 to 5 ft exist N of 24N between 37W and 70W. Farther W,
gentle to moderate with locally fresh winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft
are evident N of 22N between 70W and the Florida-Georgia coast.
Moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft are found
from 08N to 24N between 36W and the Lesser Antilles, and also N
of 16N between the NW African coast and 37W; including the Canary
Islands. Light to gentle winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail for
the rest of the basin.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, that is on the island of La Palma in
the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this on-going
situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-
France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/

For the forecast W of 65W, a large non-tropical low pressure area
remains located N of the area, about 100 miles SE of Morehead
City, North Carolina. A surface trough extends from the low center
across the NW Bahamas into the Straits of Florida. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are along the trough axis. The
trough will remain nearly stationary through at least Mon. A
tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean Sea will bring
an increase in winds and seas across the SE waters through Mon
night.

$$

Chan
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