[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Oct 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 16N southward and moving
W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is seen from 03N to 10N between 33W to 36W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is between the Lesser Antilles
and Barbados along 59W from 18N southward across N and central
Guyana, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring from the Atlantic waters
westward across the Windward Islands into the E Caribbean Sea.
Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are found near the
Venezuela-Guyana border.

A tropical wave is near 91W from the E Bay of Campeche southward
across the Mexico-Guatemala border into the E Pacific Ocean, and
moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted in the central and E Bay of Campeche, including the Mexican
coast.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

An ITCZ extends westward from W of the Sierra Leone coastline at
06N15W to 07N34W, then from 07N36W to 04N45W. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is flaring up near the first ITCZ
from 03N to 10N between 14W and 31W. Scattered moderate convection
is present near the second ITCZ from 03N to 08N between 36W and
44W. The weak monsoon trough over N central Africa does not extend
beyond the African coast.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front curves southwestward from the Florida
Panhandle into the N central Gulf, scattered showers are evident
near this feature. A surface trough meanders southwestward from
central Florida into the central Gulf. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are found across central and S Florida, and
also over the central Gulf. Refer to the Tropical Waves section
above for additional convection in the Gulf. Light to gentle with
locally moderate trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the entire
Gulf.

For the forecast, a surface trough related to the tropical wave
extends from the N central Gulf into the Bay of Campeche. The
pressure gradient between a surface ridge over E Mexico and the
trough will support moderate to locally fresh northerly winds over
the Veracruz adjacent waters through early Fri evening. Weak high
pressure will build across the E half of the basin late this
weekend into early next week, and support moderate to locally
fresh return flow W of 90W Sun through Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trades are triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over S Cuba and adjacent waters, as well as N
Hispaniola and NW Puerto Rico. Refer to the Tropical Waves
section above for additional convection in the basin. Gentle to
moderate with locally fresh ENE trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are
seen across the E and central basin. Gentle to moderate trades and
seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail over the W basin.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds are
expected across the S central Caribbean, and in the Windward
passage trough Fri. A tropical wave will move across the tropical
Atlantic waters tonight and weaken as it enters the E Caribbean
Fri. A low level disturbance accompanied by strong winds and very
active weather will reach the Windward Islands on Sat, and move
across the E Caribbean through Sun. High pressure will build N of
the area late in the weekend and support mainly moderate trades
over the E half of the basin Sun through Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front curves southwestward from near the Azores
across 31N32W to 28N44W. A surface trough then continues from
29N46W to 27N54W. Scattered moderate convection is present near
these features N of 25N between 41W and 54W. Farther W, another
surface trough near 25N62W is producing similar conditions from
19N to 28N between 56W and 70W. A surface trough along with a
mid-level low near 13N53W or about 450 nm E of the Windward
Islands are causing scattered moderate convection from 11N to 15N
between 48W and 53W. An upper-level low just N of the Cabo Verde
Islands near 20N23W is generating scattered moderate convection
from 18N to 24N between the NW African coast and 23W. Refer to the
Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Light to gentle with locally moderate winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft
are found near the stationary front and nearby surface trough, N
of 24N between 36W and 55W. Light to gentle ENE to ESE trades and
seas of 4 to 6 ft exist N of 20N between 55W and the Florida-
Georgia coast. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades with seas at 6
to 9 ft are evident from 10N to 20N between 33W and the Lesser
Antilles, and also from 17N to 26N between the African coast and
33W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail for
the remainder of the basin.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, that is on the island of La Palma in
the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September at 1410
UTC. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this on-going
situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory, that is issued
by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast W of 65W, a low pressure area located N of the
area about 100 miles off the coast of S Carolina is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms well to the east of its
center of circulation. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any
significant tropical or subtropical development during the next
few days. By late this weekend, the low is expected to interact
with a frontal boundary located to its N, which should end the
opportunity for tropical or subtropical formation. The frontal
boundary is forecast to move across the NW Bahamas and S Florida
on Sat.

$$

Chan
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