[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072121
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Oct 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W, south of 16N, moving W
around 15 to 20 knots. The convection near the southern portion
of the wave is described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 57W, south of 19N, moving W
around 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 08N to 18N between 55W and 60W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W, south of 21N, extending
from the N Yucatan through W Central America and into the E
Pacific. The wave is moving W at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted near the trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the southern
coast of Senegal near 13N17W to 11N18W. The ITCZ then continues
from 11N18W to 06N31W. It resumes from 06N34W to the coast of NE
Brazil near 01S48W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 02N to 10N between 19W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle to the
central Gulf, where the boundary continues as a trough to the Bay
of Campeche. A surface trough extends east of the stationary
front from the Florida panhandle to near 25N87W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted over the NE gulf
to the east of the trough and north of 28N. High pressure of 1019
mb is centered along the Texas coast. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail over the SW Gulf with light to gentle winds elsewhere.
Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the SW Gulf, and 1-3 ft over
the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the stationary front extending from near
Pensacola, Florida to the north-central Gulf will meander tonight
before drifting NW and gradually dissipating through Fri. A
surface trough extends from the north-central Gulf into the Bay
of Campeche. The pressure gradient between high pressure along
Mexico and the trough will support moderate to locally fresh
northerly winds over the Veracruz adjacent waters through Fri
early in the evening. Weak high pressure will build across the E
half of the basin late this weekend into early next week, and
support moderate to locally fresh return flow W of 90W Sun
through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient has loosened from the past several days as
high pressure that was north of the area has shifted eastward.
Fresh to strong winds are confined mainly to the south central
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are over the north central
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are
in the 7-9 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 6-7 ft
over the north central Caribbean, 3-5 ft over the eastern
Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds will continue
across the majority of central and SW Caribbean tonight behind a
tropical wave moving across the Yucatan peninsula and Guatemala.
A tropical wave will move across the tropical Atlantic waters
tonight and weaken as it enters the E Caribbean Fri. A low level
disturbance accompanied by strong winds and very active weather
will enter the tropical Atlantic waters Fri and reach the central
Lesser Antilles Sat morning before weakening as it moves westward
across the E Caribbean through Sun. High pressure will build N of
the area late in the weekend and support mainly moderate trades
over the eastern half of the basin Sun through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 mb low pressure centered north of the area near 32N78.5W,
with associated trough extending SW to central Florida. Numerous
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 400 nm
east of the low. To the east, a surface trough extends from
28N53W to just north of Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm south and 60 nm
north of the trough between 53W and 58W. A stationary front
enters the discussion waters near 31N31W to 28N36W, with a trough
continuing from 28N36W to 28N45W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted within 120 nm north of the trough
between 42W and 46W. Another surface trough extends from 16N48W
to 09N58W. Associated scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 12N to 20N between 46W and 53W.

Fresh to strong trade-winds prevail over the deep tropics south
of 20N, with seas of 6-8 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail over
the tropical and sub-tropical waters north of 20N. Over the open
waters, seas are in the 4-6 ft over much of the waters north of
20N. Northerly swell is bringing seas of 6-10 ft to the waters
north of 29N and east of 55W. West of the Bahamas, seas are in
the 1-3 ft range between south Florida and the northern Bahamas,
and 4-5 ft over the waters north of eastern Cuba and north of
Haiti.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, that is on the island of La Palma in
the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September at 1410
UTC. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this on-going
situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory, that is issued
by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast W of 65W, weak 1017 mb low pres north of the
area near 32N78.5W will drift ENE and persist off the coasts of
the Carolinas the next couple of days. Some tropical or
subtropical development will be possible through the weekend
before the low interacts with a frontal boundary located to its
north. Regardless of development, this system could bring heavy
rain to the offshore zones N of the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh E
winds S of 25N will continue through Fri and then resume Sun into
Tue as high pres builds into the region and both a tropical wave
and low level disturbance move across the E Caribbean.

$$
AL
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