[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062126
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Oct 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 26W, from 16N southward,
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found
from 01N to 05N between 25W and 30W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 51W, from 18N southward,
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 50W and 55W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W, from 17N southward,
moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
covers the area from 08N to 20N between 80W and 86W. Periods of
heavy rainfall are possible over portions of Nicaragua and Costa
Rica through Thursday night.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 09N17W. The ITCZ extends from 09N17W
to 04.5N25W. It resumes from 05N28W to 08N50W, then again from
07.5N54W to 07.5N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned above,
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N
to 07N between 16W and 25W, and within 150 nm if the ITCZ between
30W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Mobile, Alabama to near Veracruz
Mexico. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted within 270 nm east of the front and north of 24N.
Scattered moderate showers are also near the front over the
western Bay of Campeche south of 20N. High pressure of 1018 mb is
centered west of the front along the coast of Texas. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted west of the front, reaching fresh to
locally strong over the far SW Gulf. Light to gentle winds
prevail east of the front. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the
far SW Gulf and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the stationary front will meander through Thu
before dissipating. Weak high pressure to the NW will support
moderate to locally fresh northerly winds over Veracruz adjacent
waters through Thu. High pressure will build modestly across the
basin during the weekend and continue through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong convection over the western Caribbean Sea is described
above in the tropical waves section. A high pressure ridge
extends from 1024 mb high pressure near 34N62W SW to the central
Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure
and lower pressure across Colombia is supporting fresh to strong
winds over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail
over the eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds over the
western Caribbean. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range in the central
Caribbean, 3-6 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 1-3 ft over the
western Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
to support fresh trade winds across the eastern, central and
southwest basin with locally strong winds along Hispaniola
adjacent waters and the south-central Caribbean. These winds and
seas to 8 ft will diminish Thu early in the evening as the ridge
slides ENE and a weaker pressure gradient establishes across the
area. Moderate to locally fresh trades will dominate these
regions Thu night through Sat, diminishing to mainly moderate
across the E half of the basin Sun through Mon night. Otherwise,
a tropical wave will reach the tropical Atlantic waters tonight
and support moderate to fresh winds and building seas through
early in the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An area of low pressure has developed off the coast of north
Florida near 30N78W. Disorganized scattered moderate showers and
isolated tstorms are noted from 27N to 31N between 70W and 79W.
Upper- level winds are forecast to remain unfavorable for
tropical cyclone development while the low moves slowly northward
and then northeastward off the southeastern United States coast
during the next few days. The system has a low chance of tropical
cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.

A 1024 mb high pressure is centered just east of Bermuda, with a
surface ridge extending SW to the central Bahamas. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and 1008 mb low
pressure along the coast of NW Colombia is producing fresh to
strong winds north of Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh winds
generally prevail elsewhere south of 22N. North of 22N, gentle
to moderate winds prevail. Over the open waters, seas are in the
6-8 ft range south of 25N and 3-5 ft north of 25N. West of the
Bahamas, seas are in the 1-3 ft range, except reaching 6 ft north
of E Cuba and the windward passage.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, located on the island of La Palma in
the Canary Islands, has been erupting almost continuously since 19
September. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this
ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/

For the forecast W of 65W, the area of of pressure off N Florida
will continue to generate showers over the NW offshore waters
while drifting NW through tonight. High pressure centered E of
Bermuda will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds south
of 25N through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh winds will then
gradually diminish to gentle to locally moderate Fri and continue
through Mon.

$$
AL
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