[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 040856
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202021
500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021

Strong southerly vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt along with
entrainment of very dry mid-level air (less than 40 percent relative
humidity) has continued to take its toll on Victor. Deep convection
has been weakening during the past couple of hours and is now
displaced more than 100 nmi north and northeast of the elongated
low-level center. The shear is forecast by the global models to
increase to more than 30 kt in the next 6-12 hours, while the
surrounding environment becomes drier and more stable. As a result,
the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later today
and likely dissipate by Tuesday, if not sooner.

Victor is moving west-northwestward or 300/12 kt, and this general
motion is expected to continue through today based on the latest
NHC model guidance. As a result, no significant changes were made
to the previous track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 18.1N  43.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 19.2N  45.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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